As predicted, Chennai remained cloudy through the morning, but the sea waters hosted a couple of thunderstorms some distance away at around 3 pm this (Tuesday) afternoon. The North-East monsoon appeared to enjoy a break ahead of anticipated fresh activity around Sri Lanka two to three days from now.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP-GEFS) maintains the forecast for a blow-up of easterly wave activity around Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu as an extended arm of the dangerous Category-4 typhoon Kammuri that hit the Philippines earlier this morning. A remnant of Kammuri is forecast to enter the South China Sea and dissipate there, but not before sending in a pulse in the form of an easterly wave across to the West into the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, islands of North-East monsoon activity were located to the South this (Tuesday) afternoon along the Villupuram and Cuddalore district border. It was largely spread out to the latter mentioned as well as Pennadam while being intensely active to the South-East over Kumbakonam, Thiruvidaimarudur, Papanasam, Valangaiman, Kodavasal, Ayyampettai, Thiruvarur, Neelagiri, Koothanallur, Koradacheri, Madappuram and Elavangargudi.

A couple of thunderstorms waited out into the sea aiming to strike the stretch North of Marakkanam and its neighbourhood. By 3.30 pm, minor thunderstorms were seen consolidating at sniffing distance from the coast North of Royapuram. International models forecast a few clouds into the evening and a 20 per cent chance or precipitation.

Other parts of Tamil Nadu

Elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, Coonoor in the Nilgiris reported a very heavy 13 cm during the 24 hours ending 8.30 am this (Tuesday) morning, followed by Ramanathapuram, Ketti, K Bridge, and Agaram Seegur (9 cm each); Trangambadi, Anaikaranchatram, Rameswaram, Sirkali, Theerthandathanam, Vatanam, and Annamalai Nagar (8 cm each); Coonoor PTO, Kothagiri, Kattumannarkoil, Parangipetta, RS Mangalam, THiruvadanai and Thondi (7 cm each); Sethaitope (6 cm); and Srimushnam, Mudukulatur, Chidambaram, Ambasamudram, Manamelkudi, Kodavasal, Tozhudur and Venbavur (5 cm each).

Light to moderate rain is likely to occur at a few places over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at isolated places over interior Tamil Nadu today (Tuesday), the Chennai Met Office, which is under the India Meteorological Department, said.

A similar weather pattern is being forecast for the next two days as well. But heavy rain has been forecast at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, including Thoothukudi, Ramanathapuram, Sivaganga, and Virudhunagar districts. Heavy rain has been forecast a couple of days later on Thursday at isolated places over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Skymet forecast

An outlook from private forecaster Skymet Weather said that the active phase of the North-East monsoon has eased for now. However, scattered rains may continue over South Tamil Nadu as well as parts of Coastal Andhra and Karnataka.

A well-marked low-pressure area over Lakshadweep will be responsible for reduced rains over the entire South Peninsula as the moisture concentration will be around this weather system. Intense rains are expected over Lakshadweep for two more days. Sea conditions will be rough off the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and around Lakshadweep during this period, marked by high winds.

Deep depression

An afternoon update by the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, said that a deep depression had formed over the South-West Arabian Sea ahead of its expected intensification as a cyclone. The low-pressure area over Lakshadweep had become well-marked, which is on course to intensify as a depression by tomorrow (Wednesday).

Heavy rainfall has been forecast at isolated places over Lakshadweep for today while thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may roam around at isolated places over Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Kerala.

Forecasts up to December 10 indicated isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over the South Peninsula and the Islands.

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