Rainfall during the first monsoon month of June (1 to 30) for the country as a whole shows a deficit of only five per cent, a vast improvement from the peak deficit of 18 per cent midway through the month. Four Met subdivisions received 'large excess' rainfall (above 60 per cent or more above the long-period average), while seven others fell under the 'excess' category (between +20 and +59).

'LARGE EXCESS' RAIN

The 'large excesses' were recorded in North-West India in Punjab (+102 per cent); West Rajasthan (+77 per cent); and Jammu & Kashmir and East Rajasthan (+64 per cent each). Seven Met subdivisions recorded 'excess' rainfall. These are Konkan & Goa (+43); Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (+38); Marathawada (+32); South Interior Karnataka (+30); West Madhya Pradesh (+27); Telangana and Himachal Pradesh (+24 each).

The rain was 'normal' (-19 per cent to +19 per cent) in 15 Met subdivisions mainly across South Peninsula and Central India, and 'deficient' (-59 to -20) and 'large deficient' (-99 to -60) in two. The 'large deficient' areas are Saurashtra & Kutch (-88 per cent) and East Uttar Pradesh (-60).

The 'deficient' areas are West Uttar Pradesh (-48); Bihar (-40); Lakshadweep (-38); Arunachal Pradesh (-36); Jharkhand (-35); Gujarat Region (-31); Odisha and Assam & Meghalaya (27 each). The monsoon rainfall statistics for June were put out by India Met Department (IMD) yesterday. June is the least productive monsoon month, accounting for 17 per cent of the seasonal total.

TROUGH NORTH-BOUND

Meanwhile, a monsoon-determinant trough across the plains of North India has continued its gradual shift towards the foothills of the Himalayas, signalling weaker rains over Central India. The IMD said this morning that the axis of the all-important trough would remain in the foothills during the first week of July, the rainiest of the four monsoon months.

This means that the ferocity of the monsoon would be confined to the northern parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, the western Himalayan region and the north-eastern states. These rains would hold strong during the three days starting today, which are likely to lead to heavy to very heavy rain, flooding and landslips along the foothills.

Some change in the pattern of rainfall could become apparent from Wednesday (July 4), when parts of the West Coast might witness a return of wet spells. This could become possible with the realignment of the offshore trough, which is now feeble and lies truncated from the South Maharashtra coast to Lakshadweep.

RAIN TO RESUME

The normal alignment during the active phase of the monsoon is straight North to South from South Gujarat down to Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The IMD expects to see a resumption of heavy to very heavy rain over Konkan and Goa, while it would be heavy over Madhya Maharashtra, coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

The forecast valid for the rest of the country on Wednesday is heavy to very heavy rain over Assam and Meghalaya and heavy over the north-eastern states, the hills of Bengal and Sikkim.

For Thursday (July 5), the forecast is once again heavy to very heavy rain for Konkan and Goa and heavy over Madhya Maharashtra, coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. To the East, it would be heavy to very heavy over Assam and Meghalaya and heavy over the north-eastern states, the hills of Bengal and Sikkim.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over North-East India and along the northern parts of the West Coast. The extended outlook valid for three days from Friday said isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over West, Central and South India, while rainfall would be scattered to fairly widespread over East India. Isolated rainfall is also possible over North-West India during this period, the IMD outlook suggested.

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