The monsoon is expected to break out of its stupor over Central India as early as from Monday (tomorrow, June 22) to enter North-West India, and cobble together a fresh rain wave over the South Peninsula soon after in a two-pronged push over mainland India, the first such on view after the onset phase.

A rogue circulation over the North Arabian Sea off the Konkan and Gujarat coasts has wriggled its way out to the West-South-West and lies this (Sunday) morning over West-Central and North-West Arabian Sea (closer to Oman), in turn freeing up the monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

The emerging resurgent phase would help it to consolidate the 28 per cent surplus rain recorded until yesterday (down two-three percentage points due to the pause over Central India), amongst the best on show during comparable phase in the onset month of June during the last three-four years, statistics reveal.

Building on surplus

For instance, rainfall as on June 25 during the last year (2019) had hit a low of -25 per cent (deficit), though a historically strong Indian Ocean Dipole event helped it make a spectacular return and ensure an extended run into October to return a surplus of 110 per cent for the season as a whole (June-September).

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that conditions are becoming favourable for advance of the monsoon into more parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Uttarakhand on Monday and Tuesday. The date of arrival in the capital city of Delhi is June 29.

But this year, despite the brief pause over Central India, seasonal rains may reach Delhi three to four days ahead on June 25, along with Haryana, Chandigarh, most of Punjab, entire Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan, the IMD said.

Punishing spell in East

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall may continue East and North-East India during the next 4-5 days. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; it will be isolated heavy over Vidarbha from today (Sunday) to Tuesday. Rainfall activity over the plains of North-West India l may scale up from Tuesday.

An extended outlook for June 26-28 said that fairly widespread to widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over North-East India, plains of North-West India, Madhya Pradesh and along southern parts of the West Coast (Kerala and Karnataka) and Lakshadweep.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely is being forecast over rest parts of the country during this period, except over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (nursing a rainfall deficit already), West Rajasthan, Gujarat and Coastal Andhra Pradesh where isolated to scattered rainfall is possible.