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Leading global catastrophe risk management consultancy RMSI has estimated the initial potential loss from the extremely severe cyclone Tauktae at ₹15,000 crore. At least half of the loss is in Gujarat and Daman & Diu. The remaining is expected from the western coastal States of Kerala, Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka.
Pushpendra Johari, Senior Vice-President-Sustainability, RMSI, said that 'Tauktae' is a unique cyclone event that has impacted all the western coastal states and a Union Territory. Though its effect on the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Goa was not severe, Gujarat and Diu are badly impacted.
Cyclone Tauktae weakens; to bring rain in many states: IMD
Gujarat, Diu impacted worst
“Though the cyclone has made landfall, this is not the end of distress. Recent climate change studies have highlighted the rising trend in sea-surface temperature in the Arabian Sea which will raise the cyclone frequency here. We should improve our preparedness even further to deal with more such events in future,” Johari added.
25-40 per cent of the loss from Tauktae is expected from the agriculture sector from all impacted States, according to the RMSI’s cyclone model; 15-20 per cent is from the transportation sector, primarily ports, and a similar loss share is from the utility sector, primarily power and telecom.
Sesame, pulses in Gujarat may be hit by cyclone ‘Tauktae’
RMSI cyclone model
These estimates are based on the RMSI cyclone model, which is a scientific estimation of the physical phenomena, a spokesman said. As with any model of physical systems, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulated analyses.
Some important highlights to note are: Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Goa saw sustained wind speeds of up to 88 km/hr uprooting trees and electric poles and impacting electricity supply. They experienced moderate flooding of up to 0.5 to 1 m in the low-lying areas near the coast. Minor storm surge impact in the form of coastal erosion too was reported from these States.
As said earlier, Gujarat and Diu bore the brunt of the powerful cyclone. Coastal areas of Junagadh and Amreli districts in Gujarat and the Union Territory of Diu witnessed winds speeding up to 166 km/hr, uprooting trees, damaging kachha houses and ripping off tiled or tin roofs.
Based on IMD forecasts
The RMSI model estimated moderate flooding of 0.5 m to 1 m around Porbandar; 1.6-11.4 ft around Una, Bhavnagar, Rajula, Tajala and in Diu as well as parts of Surat city. This is the combined impact of storm surge and rainfall on land with the maximum storm surge up to 11.4 ft near Una and in Diu.
RMSI offers solutions for risks associated with natural and man-made hazards. It analysed potential wind and flood impact from Tauktae based on a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department at 2.30 pm Monday for wind and 11 am for flood and storm surge.
The cyclone made landfall on the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva, near the Union Territory of Diu in the night of Monday. RMSI had applied its India Cyclone Model to generate wind speeds and floods associated with the extremely severe cyclone, the spokesman said.
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