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After the Arabian Sea, it is now the turn of the Bay of Bengal to host a tropical cyclone, with a prevailing ‘well-marked’ low-pressure area already intensifying into a depression.
The depression lies about 720 km South-South-East of Gopalpur (Odisha), 690 km South-East of Kalingapatinam (Andhra Pradesh) this noon.
Cyclone on Tuesday
India Met Department (IMD) expects it to intensify further into a deep depression by tomorrow and into a cyclonic storm by Wednesday.
It is very likely to move northwestwards towards Odisha and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh coasts by the weekend.
Due to the presence of intense systems in the Arabian Sea and now in the Bay, the wind regime has changed over the Bay of Bengal and the adjoining sea areas.
This has prompted a review of North-East monsoon forecast made earlier, and the IMD has clarified that the systems would temporarily interfere with the pattern of rainfall over the South Peninsula.
This is because both these systems are active at the extremities of the respective ocean basins and have away-going flows feeding into them farther away from the coasts.
While cyclone Luban in the Arabian Sea has easterlies to southeasterlies feeding into it, the wind regime in the Bay, where the North-East monsoon should establish first, the winds are south-westerlies.
Conditions reassessed
The IMD has therefore assessed that the rainfall activity may decrease over the South Peninsula from Tuesday onwards.
Hence, the commencement of the North-East monsoon, which was originally forecast to take place today, is not likely to take place.
Development of favourable conditions will be closely monitored and developments assessed after the life cycle of the cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal, the IMD said.
Meanwhile, cyclone Luban now lies over West-Central and adjoining South-West Arabian Sea, 990 km East-Southeast of Salalah (Oman), 880 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1,300 km West-North-West of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Islands).
It is forecast to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm by tomorrow and move west-northwestwards towards South Oman and Yemen coasts during the next five days.
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