India Met Department (IMD) has upgraded the storm alert in the Bay of Bengal to that of a deep depression (next only to a cyclone) over the next couple of days.

A low-pressure area has already formed over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Sumatra Island. This is expected to concentrate into a depression by Monday and a deep depression the next day.

Second storm This is the second of back-to-back storms being generated in the Bay after predecessor ‘Nada’ crossed the Tamil Nadu coast, weakened as a depression a couple of days ago.

Since this depression could not produce any significant rainfall outside of the immediate impact area, the behaviour and track of the successor will be keenly watched.

Latest projections by global models seem to delay the landfall of the would-be storm by two to three days later than the December 8 (Thursday) timeline initially set.

The Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) and the Naval Global Environment Model (Navgem) predict that the storm is headed towards coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Contrary view The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) points to a more southerly latitude over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh close to Chennai as the landfall point.

According to the CMC, the landfall could be delayed beyond even December 11.

The ECMWF, on the other hand, joins the CMC and has set up a watch for December 11. All the models now estimate that the storm would have peaked to a severe cyclone before reaching coast.

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