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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that a new low-pressure area may form over the West-Central and adjoining North Bay of Bengal over the next three to four days (by Sunday) even as a hyperactive and well-marked low-pressure area off the Odisha and West Bengal coasts caused monsoon torrents to swamp many regions of the West Coast, Central and East India.
The very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall during the 24 hours ending on Wednesday morning itself tells a tale. Some of the heaviest rain (in cm) fell at Palgarh-46; Avalanchi (Nilgiris)-39; Dahanu-38; Mahabaleshwar-32; Upper Bhavani (Nilgiris)-31; Jujumura (Sambalpur)-28; Ratanagiri- 22; Balipatna (Khorda) and Solaiyar (Coimbatore)-18 each; Sonepur-17; Bhubaneshwar and Wayanad-15 each; Matheran-14; Karwar-10; Chandbali, Amreli and Honavar-9; Mumbai(Santacruz)-8; Paradip, Veraval, Panagarh, Burdwan, Kolhapur and Palakkad-7 each.
Low still out into the sea
This is even as the well-marked low has not even started moving inland. The IMD located it off the Odisha-West Bengal coasts on Wednesday afternoon. Its lateral movement is slower than expected, which would only add to the virility of the showers as it drifts across west-north-westward along a trough that links it with the cyclonic circulation over South Gujarat.
It is this interlinked status, allowing a free flow of moisture from both the Arabian Sea in the West (rustled up by the circulation over South Gujarat) and the comparably well-endowed low in the Bay that has escalated the rainfall to levels not seen till now this season. The systems located on the West and East complement each other in possibly the setting witnessed so far.
Another spell in store
The weakening low-pressure area is expected to bring about another punishing spell along its path over West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, South-West Rajasthan, Konkan and Goa (including Mumbai) into the weekend before sliding into the Arabian Sea and possibly undergoing another round of intensification before becoming inconsequential to the West Coast.
Back in the Bay, by this time, the next low would have taken birth, and according to projections, get a move to the South-South-West towards the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts and then inland to pour down its contents over an area already drenched by the predecessor. The system is forecast to travel towards Rajasthan across Central India and North-West India.
Not done yet in West India
The IMD outlook issued from Thursday for the next few days is as follows: Widespread rainfall with isolated/ scattered heavy to very heavy falls to continue over Gujarat state, Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) and Madhya Maharashtra (Ghats) till Thursday and relent thereafter; isolated extremely heavy falls over Saurashtra and Kutch on Thursday.
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and South Interior and Coastal Karnataka during next 4-5 days. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely for Coastal Karnataka on Saturday and Sunday; over Tamil Nadu Thursday, Saturday and Sunday; and over Kerala until Sunday.
Third low in making
Moderate to a severe thunderstorm with lightning has been forecast at isolated places over South Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat state, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and plains of West Bengal on Sunday. An extended outlook from Monday next to Wednesday (August 10-12) said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls might wallop the West Coast, Central and adjoining East India and plains of North-West India.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls is likely over the Islands and Interior Maharashtra and isolated to scattered over rest of the country. Short-to-medium guidance from the IMD goes on to suggest the formation of a third successive low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal around mid-August in what could be frenetic phase of the monsoon that apparently sets out to make amends for its low-key performance during the first two months. But that is also fraught with the threat of floods and landslides.
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