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India Met Department (IMD) has confirmed that a low-pressure area has formed over the South-East Arabian Sea and neighbourhood.
It is expected to become 'more marked' during the next 12 hours and concentrate into a depression and move northwestwards during the next 24 hours. Later, it could intensify into a cyclonic storm and move towards Oman coast.
Yellow, red alerts
Wind speeds would gradually increase over South-East and Central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, at 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr from tomorrow. They will gradually increase further over this region.
A 'yellow' alert with an intervening 'red' alert (on Monday) has been declared for Tamil Nadu and Kerala for the next five days starting today with respect to expected intensity of rainfall.
This will range from being 'heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places' to 'heavy to very heavy rain with extreme heavy falls'. A 'yellow' alert is valid for Lakshadweep for the first three days.
Earlier this morning, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) had located an area of disturbance between Maldives and Lakshadweep, 1,665 km north-northwest of Diego Garcia island.
Ideal settings
Very low vertical wind shear, proper window effect on top, and suitable sea-surface temperatures of 28-30 deg Celsius in the vicinity would allow the system to develop. Vertical wind shear refers to the cross-winds that kills a storm while a 'window' on its top indicates its potential to breath in to grow and sustain itself.
Warm sea-surface supplies moisture, the fuel the system needs to feed itself to grow in strength. This environment is conducive for its rapid growth into a powerful cyclone, the JTWC says.
It cites global models as projecting that the evolving storm would move in a north-westward direction over the next two to four days, but did not suggest an area for landfall. Meanwhile, the nearest islands nations of Maldives to the South and Sri Lanka to the East have already put out notices of rough weather evolving in their vicinity.
Maldives, Lanka alert
The Maldives Meteorological Service said that winds were westerly to north-westerly of up to 42 km/hr in speed over the central atolls and slightly less elsewhere. But winds may gust to 72 km/hr and between 79 km/hr during showers. The seas would be 'rough' (wave heights of up to eight ft).
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