The monsoon may remain muted to begin with during August but will pick pace later to deliver normal to above normal rainfall for most parts of the country except Odisha, adjoining North Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, says an outlook from Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre.

Deterministic MME forecasts from the South Korean agency indicates that September, the last of the four monsoon months, may go one better to deliver normal to above normal rainfall for entire country even as a roller-coaster July, with five days to go, has brought down rain deficit to just one per cent.

Rains back for East India

This is even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a productive session yet again for Odisha, plains of West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar with a likely enhanced rainfall activity with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and heavy to isolated very heavy falls from Tuesday.

On Sunday, the monsoon sat heavy over East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch through the day. Significant rain (in cm) recorded here and elsewhere until 5.30 pm are Ratlam-11; Rajkot-9; Chittorgarh and Keshod-8; Shajapur-7; Ujjain, Khandwa, Valparai and Pachmarhi-4; Long Island, Mahabaleshwar and Dehradun-3; Udaipur Dabok, Khargone, Matheran, Cannur and Tondi-2 each.

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The IMD sees normal to below normal monsoon conditions during July 31 to August 2. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Northwest(except West Rajasthan), East and Northeast India and along the West Coast. It will be isolated to scattered for the rest of the country.

Northwest India under radar

Outlook for Monday signalled that the fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may continue over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh while the rainfall activity may scale up over the hills and adjoining plains of Northwest India.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast over the landslide-prone Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and vulnerable Uttarakhand until Thursday and over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and the plains of Punjab and Haryana from Tuesday to Thursday.

The rain-driving monsoon trough passes through Bikaner, Ajmer, the centre of a prevailing low-pressure area over North-West Madhya Pradesh, Satna, Gaya, Malda and thence eastwards to Tripura. Its eastern tip washing over land from the Bay of Bengal to Tripura points to the respite from peak monsoon activity.

Fresh low-pressure area

But this may be short-lived since the IMD has already predicted the formation of a successor low-pressure area over the North Bay in the next two day, likely bringing the eastern end of the trough back dipping into the waters to set off another rainy session over East and Central India as mentioned above.

The offshore trough lies truncated from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast, confining current activity of the monsoon to that stretch of the West Coast and adjoining interior. A western disturbance as a trough is waiting in the wings over Afghanistan-Pakistan. A cyclonic circulation hangs over Northwest Rajasthan.