The Covid-19 test positivity rate (TPR) in Kerala zoomed to 17.73 per cent on Saturday, the day of Onam, from just below 17 per cent the previous day. It has been on steadily increasing trend from the 10-12 per cent level after an 'unlock' was declared with the 10-day harvest festival in sight.

On Saturday, the state reported 17,106 new cases of infection on a comparably low base of 96,481 samples tested. Number of deaths confirmed was 83, which took the cumulative toll to 19,428. Active case pool came in at 1,78,462 while hospital admissions remained low at 27,260.

 

Case for expedited vaccination

According to Dr PS Indu, Professor, Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Thrissur,  vaccination of the 18-44 age group must be taken up in right earnest. This is the group indulging in Onam-related shopping activities or goes around visiting friends and families.

Thers is no gainsaying that the efficacy of single dose vis-a-vis the delta variant is very low, Indu said. But there is evidence that when both doses are taken, the situation improves.

Dr TS Anish, Assistant Professor, Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, said that what number among the new cases convert to severe cases is important. Most of the elderly and the co-morbid have been vaccinated by now, which is a big relief.

 

Severity of cases reduces

Had it not been the case, three to five times the number of hospitalisations and deaths would have occurred now, compared to April-May. Anish agreed with the view that infections are now getting concentrated to within youngsters. A good majority of the vulnerable group is now protected.

So, severity of the disease has reduced compared to April-May. But if the numbers go up by four times, severe cases may also go up in tandem. "What happens if the cases quadruple is a moot question. The Covid virus has never behaved to our expectations and cannot just be taken for granted."

 

Caution is watchword

Current numbers are satisfactory but for a hospital half full now, it may not much time to spill if the numbers rise exponentially. "So, we need to be very cautious during Onam when social interactions peak. We may be better off with vaccination, but would still need to be careful," Anish said.

"Delta is the most evolved variant so far. Whoever has been infected may not get a reinfection until the next variant arrives. North India has been completed swept by delta and should be safe until then. And the focus is trained on Kerala's rising numbers for any clues of a variant," he added.

 

 

 

 

 

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