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Covid-19 vaccine makers will generate $60 billion in global sales this year, along similar lines as last year, forecasts science analytics company Airfinity. And this, despite the number of doses sold, estimated to drop from 5.7 billion in 2021 to 3 billion this year.
A price-increase is how the vaccine companies will make-up up for the dip in demand for Covid-19 vaccines. According to Airfinity’s analysis, the average price per dose will double from $18 in 2021 to $37 in 2023.
In 2023, the value of the Covid-19 vaccine market is further predicted to fall by about a fifth to $47 billion. And the number of doses sold will fall further to 1.6 billion doses as the world enters a new endemic era with the virus, the analytics company said.
“Despite the drop in sales volumes of 72 per cent between 2021 and 2023, revenue is only predicted to fall by 22 per cent due to higher prices,” the note said.
Price rise
All manufacturers are raising prices but mRNA vaccines have gone up the most, the analytics company said. A dose of Pfizer/BioNTech is expected to cost between $22-$42, depending on which country is purchasing, it added.
Meanwhile, shots from the other vaccine manufacturers, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, are estimated to cost between $5-$16. India’s Serum Institute has alliances with Novavax and and AstraZeneca, while Biological E had inked an alliance with J&J.
Pfizer and Moderna are predicted to maintain dominance of the market, with a 94 percent market share in 2023. But revenues are predicted to fall from $37 billion for Pfizer/BioNTech in 2021, to $32 billion this year and next. Moderna is forecast to see sales up this year from $17 billion in 2021 to $21 billion but drop to $12 billion in 2023.
Moderna is estimated to be selling vials for between $32-$50 with the US potentially paying even more. Moderna indicated that the potential prices in the US could range from $64 to $100 per dose.
No gain in market share
New vaccines entering the market are not expected to gain significant market share in 2023, the note said. The Novavax vaccine approved by the EMA (European Medicines Agency) in December last year, is estimated to generate $2.3 billion this year, taking almost 4 percent market share.
However, this is expected to fall to 1.7 percent market share in 2023. Other new candidates from Sanofi/GSK and HIPRA are expected to see similar levels of success, it added.
Next year is set to see the emergence of a private market for Covid-19 vaccines, most prominently in the US. Airfinity’s analysis of G7 and EU supply deals shows all countries except the US have secured supply which will exceed population demand.
So far, there haven’t been any publicly disclosed orders on the private market in the US, but these are expected to start in the second half of 2023, it added.
According to Airfinity’s Chief Executive Rasmus Bech Hansen, “These numbers show a persistent and longer term demand for Covid-19 vaccines and illustrates that Covid-19 is a continued large health threat and significant disease burden.”
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