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A likely super typhoon and a tropical depression in the North-West Pacific will combine to deliver an easterly 'pulse' in the Bay of Bengal to charge up the Indian monsoon from next week.
The 'pulse' from the duo being generated from the Taipei region would cross IndoChina and land in the North Bay, where it could intensify into a likely depression.
LIKELY DEPRESSION
This is according to a forecast outlook from the US National Weather Services, and may be set in motion from September 14 to 18, when a rudimentary circulation may develop in the Bay.
During the subsequent week or so, it might intensify as a depression, and, according to the US forecasts, head west-south-westwards to the Andhra Pradesh coast, where it may cross the coast.
The typhoon, named Mangkhut, has tracked westward over the West Pacific and is heading towards Hong Kong according to initial indications, clocking wind speeds of 148 km/hr and gusting to 185 km/hr.
It is forecast to reach the East China Sea/North-West Pacific and likely posit itself at a location over the waters, equidistant from the northern tip of the Philippines and Taipei by September 15.
Both the Luzon region in North Philippines and Taiwan are expected to be affected by the roaring winds, as Mangkhut scorches the intervening waters and heads for Hong Kong/South-East China.
Meanwhile, the tropical depression has left Taiwan and is headed towards Hanoi in Vietnam, where it would end up as a low-pressure area by September 14, and weaken further.
But the depression would have prepared the ground for much stronger typhoon Mangkhut to do what is needed to flare up the Indian monsoon, in what is its end phase.
WEAKENING MONSOON
A 10-day outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast shows the East coast of India lighting up, as a rain band approaches South coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and the north-eastern states may receive varying amounts of rain during this period.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also indicated for the rugged terrain of Nepal, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh in India, as well as parts of Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, the India Met Department (IMD) said this morning that the rain-driving monsoon trough over North India is likely to shift further northwards towards the foothills from tomorrow.
This happens during the weak phase of the monsoon, when rains would be confined to the foothills of the Himalayas, the East Coast, and Tamil Nadu and adjoining interior peninsula.
The IMD said strong southerly/south-easterly winds carrying moisture from the Bay will prevail over the north-eastern states until day-after-tomorrow.
Intense widespread rainfall may lash the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the next four days and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for the next three days.
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