There is no maximum temperature warning for Kerala today (Sunday) even as day temperatures may prevail appreciably above normal (by 3.1-5.0 degree Celsius) at a number of places. However, international model forecasts suggest Kerala may also benefit from a round of showers during the next 12-day period that the early spring is likely bringing to different parts of the country.

The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction iconcurs saying that showers triggered by passing western disturbances will migrate to the East, and a limb extending to the South along the East will build further mass along Bihar, Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and across the Western Ghats into Kerala (till March 9, up to which forecasts are available). This will come about as the limb of lower pressure and clouds rustles up the weather around it while lowering itself into a regime of moist winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal along East India.

Wet climes until March 13?

Other international models suggested that seasonally normal to dry patch will begin from March 13 to March 22 and literally hot conditions from March 23 to April 1, especially for the extreme South Peninsula (South Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu). The APEC Climate Centre, Busan, more or less agrees with this outlook for the South Peninsula. But wet to very wet conditions are forecast for the month of March as a whole for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and the foothills of Uttar Pradesh, BIhar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that light to moderate rain/snow was received at most places over Uttarakhand and at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh yesterday (Saturday). Light to moderate rain/thundershowers were recorded at many places over East Uttar Pradesh; at a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh; hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; at isolated places over Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.

Passing western disturbances

The IMD explained the context of the emerging weather for parts of the country as follows. Confluence of westerlies from the western disturbance and easterlies from the Bay of Bengal will cause light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with lightning over Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal from today (Sunday) to Tuesday; fairly widespread to widespread rain or thundershowers over the North-Eastern States from tomorrow (Monday) to Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is over Odisha during on Monday and Tuesday and over Chhattisgarh on Monday.

Isolated hailstorm is forecast today and tomorrow over Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand. In association with above, thunderstorm with lightning and gusty winds with speed reaching 30-40 km/hr is likely over East Uttar Pradesh; over plains of West Bengal on tomorrow (Monday); over Assam and Meghalaya on Tuesday and Wednesday; and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Wednesday. This apart, a trough (elongated area of lower pressure) extends from South Madhya Maharashtra to North-East Madhya Pradesh, which would spark showers or light rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh today and tomorrow (Sunday and Monday).