Obama unlikely to repeat big win in California: Survey

PTI Los Angeles | Updated on November 17, 2017 Published on October 28, 2012

Barack Obama (file photo)

US President Barack Obama is unlikely to repeat his historic 2008 margin of victory in California, a key swing state with maximum Electroral College votes, a new poll ahead of the 2012 race to the White House has found.

Despite his sizeable lead over his Republican rival Mitt Romney, Obama is unlikely to repeat his historic 2008 margin of victory in California because of his diminished power to pull in people who don’t traditionally support Democrats, according to the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.

“The drop in appeal across party and demographic lines has translated, at this point, to a 14-point edge over the Republican nominee among likely voters — well below Obama’s 24-point victory in 2008, the biggest margin in modern times,” the Los Angles Times reported.

The same trends that are making the presidential contest tight in the battleground states are evident in California, particularly the decline in support for Obama among white voters and men, it said.

In 2008, Obama won male voters by 18 percentage points over Republican nominee John McCain; he currently leads Romney by 1 point among likely male voters. Among white men, Obama beat McCain by two percentage points; Romney now leads among them by 17 points.

To be elected as US President, Obama or Romney need at least 270 Electoral College votes. Every State has a fixed number of Electoral College votes. California, the most populous American state has 55 Electoral College votes.

The poll, conducted for The Times and the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, showed that Obama’s level of support now reflects the traditional advantage for a Democrat in California, rather than exceeding it as he did in 2008.

The poll found that 51 per cent of Californians believe that the nation is moving in the wrong direction.

The fact that Obama is doing well here despite qualms about the direction of the nation reflects Democrats’ strength in California, where not a single Republican was elected to statewide office in 2010, the report said.

Obama maintains strong support among key Democratic constituencies. He leads Romney among likely Latino voters by 52 percentage points, and among likely female voters by 26 points — numbers roughly consistent with his performance against McCain in 2008.

The poll surveyed 1,504 registered voters by phone between October 15 and 21.

Among registered voters ages 18 to 49, Obama has nearly double the support of Romney, winning 63 per cent to Romney’s 32 per cent. Among those older than 50, the men are nearly at parity, though Obama continues to lead, 48 to 45.

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Published on October 28, 2012
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