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Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7 per cent, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6 per cent on September 24.
He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes. The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 22.8 per cent, down from 22.9 per cent, on September 24
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According to the September 25 run of the model, Trump had a 11.1 per cent chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 88.9 per cent. The national polling average for Trump reached 43.1 per cent on September 25, unchanged from September 24.
Biden’s national polling average reached 50.3 per cent on September 25 compared with 50.2 per cent on September 24.
FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-.
In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.
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