Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s massive electoral mandate should add to India’s muscle as he strides onto the world stage in his second term. But the world’s a bad-tempered place these days and his — and India’s — diplomatic outreaches face a new set of challenges. India’s going to have to tread a cautious path between the US and China, complicated by the capricious Donald Trump who’s trying to create ‘a my-way-or-the-highway’ unipolar world in which the US rules supreme. With economic growth slackening and unemployment at a 45-year peak, Modi will have to start emphasising trade and business and be India’s top salesman. Already, India’s in the bad books of the US and as of June 5, Washington’s ending India’s preferential trade status over tariffs on US goods like Harley-Davidson motorcycles (a tiny fraction of US exports to India but one on which Trump appears fixated) and price caps on medical devices, of which US is an important supplier. Besides that, the US is unhappy about our e-commerce rule changes and India’s bid to build its own hi-tech national champions that could curb space for companies like Google, Microsoft and Facebook. At another level, the US has also scrapped India’s dispensation to buy Iranian oil and its Iran blockade means the fate of Chabahar port is now uncertain. The fact ex-foreign secretary S Jaishankar’s been parachuted in as external affairs minister suggests India aims to use his experience to mend fences and draw closer to the US. But he’ll have to share the stage with NSA Ajit Doval who’s got cabinet rank and can be expected to lead on ties with Pakistan and even China. On a different front, with Russia too, relations are frayed though we’re still buying their arms. But those arms purchases have riled the US and Moscow is worried the US will put intense pressure on India to buy American arms.

The first indication of how Modi’s viewing the future came at his grand inauguration for which Bimstec leaders were invited in a not-so-subtle signal that India has abandoned the almost-defunct SAARC and, particularly, Pakistan. One of Modi’s early forays will be to next month’s Bishkek Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting and everyone will be watching attentively to see if Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan meet or ignore each other. Khan caused a stir before the election when he said there’d be a better chance of peace with the BJP in government.

Extreme caution, though, will likely surround any Pakistan moves by Modi. One of his greatest initial fiascos was his dramatic detour to Lahore. Since then, we’ve have gone to the other extreme with Balakot. Nonetheless, Pakistan is in a deep financial hole and could come under pressure from the international community to lower its aggressive anti-India posture in exchange for aid. The Chinese, too, know peace is vital for their China-Pakistan Economic Cooperation (CPEC) mega-project. So if that opportunity presents itself, Modi must move boldly to seize it.