The Hindu Business Line : TN polls: A neck-and-neck race?

Prof. K.A. Manikumar, Professor of History at the Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Tirunelveli, had with such deadly precision predicted in an interview to Business Line in April 2004, that the AIADMK would "not win even a single seat in the Lok Sabha polls because it has antagonised each and every section of society".

But, for the coming Assembly election he says, "It's an entirely different scenario today, compared with the last time we had spoken; there is no anger, distress, no disillusionment."

"But", he hastens to add, "That does not mean that people will blindly vote for the AIADMK. Today there is no atmosphere of fear and people are willing to talk loudly and openly. More important, they will exercise their option shrewdly and prudently."

Many people in the villages in the Tiruchi-Dindigul belt that one talks to agree that with no "negative issues" forcing them to vote against one party and for another, "weak and non-performing candidates will be punished irrespective of the party they belong to".

Need to work hard

Adds Prof Manikumar, "But, it's going to be a neck-and-neck race, and if the DMK doesn't work hard, it will learn a costly lesson. Nothing can be taken for granted in this election."

Last time around, in the 2004 polls, Government servants and their families as a single block had voted against the Tamil Nadu Chief Minsiter, Ms J. Jayalalithaa, for having taken away or watering down their perks and retirement benefits.

Of course, she later restored these and announced some sops for government employees too, but there are enough indications that all is neither "forgiven nor forgotten".

Mr Abdul Hameed, a lawyer in hill town of Kodaikanal, says with more fury in his eyes than his words: "Do you think government servants have forgotten... all the humiliation they underwent during those days?" Ms Vasantha, a Government school teacher in the region, is scathing in her attack of the AIADMK.

"We will never forget the manner in which the entire family of government employees was humiliated by Ms Jayalalithaa. She might have given us back some money, but can she ever return our self-respect that she took away, painting us as a non-working, undeserving and indisciplined lot? We defeated the AIADMK in the Lok Sabha elections and we'll do so again now," she says angrily.

Populist schemes

Coming to the populist schemes announced by the two main Dravidian parties — 10 kg free rice by the AIADMK and colour TV and PDS rice at Rs 2 a kg by the DMK — Prof Manikumar says populist schemes work to a certain extent but not always. "My servant maid is quite sceptical and says: "She has now promised us 10 kg of free rice. But who knows what she will do after she comes back to power." Well, the same holds true for the DMK too, but one hears a lot of positive sentiment about the land offer made by the DMK.

`Vaiko has made a mistake'

But one is surprised by the sharpness of the sentiment against Vaiko for joining the Ms Jayalalithaa who had incarcerated him for long months under POTA.

"Vaiko has made the blunder of his life and is trapped. In fact, the MDMK candidates are quite nervous as in many constituencies the AIADMK workers are not working for them. And this was only to be expected."

While there is no doubt that the DMDK leader Mr Vijaykanth's entry in this election will take away votes both from the AIADMK front and the DPA lead by the DMK, Prof Manikumar thinks he will take away more votes from the AIADMK than the DMK. Giving the example of Aruppokkotai, (in Virudhunagar district) he says that the "election meeting addressed here by Stalin had little crowd. But in the same place, Mr Vijaykanth drew huge crowds and my understanding is that a bulk of those who turned up was mostly AIADMK supporters.

Feel-good factor

But the most significant part of this election is that there is neither a frenzy nor a despondency which normally result in a larger voter turnout. From all accounts distress levels are down, the economy is on a roll, so much so that a small kirana shop - Murugan Traders — a couple of km from Tiruchi is doing roaring business. Its owner, Mr Mrugan, says he does a total sales of Rs 4,000 a day, "the best ever" and makes a profit of Rs 400 a day. "And, there is no problem here... the law and order situation is fine, and I need not fear about anything. What more can I ask for? So I will vote for Amma, not only now, but always."

As Prof Manikumar points out, "the Chief Minister has taken care of the Dalits; in fact in many houses they have got three bicycles; so if dire times come, they have something to pledge."