The Hindu Business Line : Fresh pulse to sustain winter rains in North

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 12 The rain-driving western disturbance in North and Northwest India has moved away into the east, but there is a follow-up pulse closing in from the rear, promising more rain and sleet.

The incoming system would not have the size and amplitude of the preceding one whose reach had extended to Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh, said, Dr K. G. Ramesh, of the Department of Science and Technology. The impact will now be felt mostly to the north of Delhi — in Punjab, Haryana and parts of Rajasthan.

There is a semi-permanent trough sitting over Central Pakistan/West Rajasthan, which will continue to send in rain pulses causing intermittent rain in the North and adjoining plains, Dr Ramesh said. A high-pressure system, which had caused undue warming of the region, has been eclipsed for the time being.

The next western disturbance in the series is expected to drift in by the weekend, a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said on Monday.

Rain and slush is expected to be the dominant theme for another 10 days, though waxing and waning from time-to-time. Non-irrigated Rabi crops such as oil seeds and mustard are expected to benefit the most.

Good for Paddy

There is a feeling that the rains have come too late in the day to be of much relevance to paddy. But associated fall in mercury is a good augury for the crop.

Fairly widespread to widespread snowfall/rainfall has already been reported in the North and Northwest during the past two to three days. The rains will gradually lose in intensity from Wednesday onwards with the pulse moving to the east.

This means that the rainfall activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the North-Eastern States would continue over the next two days. Model predictions suggest that with the western disturbance moving to the east, day temperatures over the Northwest and the plains are likely to return to normal from Tuesday. But night temperatures may fall by about 4 degree C during the next three to four days.

Forecasts

Widespread snowfall/rain is expected in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal over the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh. Thereafter, fog is expected during morning and evening hours.

Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are likely over west Rajasthan. Fairly widespread rainfall/thundershower is also likely over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the Northeast.

Scattered rainfall is expected in Orissa during the next 24 hours. Fog will mostly develop over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar from Tuesday.

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