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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, June 28 Southwest monsoon has reached Delhi a day ahead of normal on Thursday as the previous day’s well marked ‘low’ in the northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal intensified twice over to become a deep depression in the same area.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Thursday that the deep depression was expected to intensify further and move in a west-northwest before crossing the Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip, close to Puri, by midnight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Navy has issued a tropical cyclone alert for the Orissa coast.

The IMD predicted widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or above) over north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Chhattisgarh during the next two days. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 km/hr are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts during the same period.

Numerical predictions suggested that a western disturbance lay over Pakistan, Afghanistan and adjoining areas. It is likely to approach hilly regions of northwest India within the next 24 hours. By default, this would bring large parts of the country under the combined influence of three weather conditions over the next three days generating extreme wet conditions at many places.

The two other combining features are the expected movement of the deep depression westward over land and monsoonal easterlies extending over entire plains of north India. Their interaction will result in widespread rainfalls with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls over Orissa, north Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.

Subsequently, widespread rain with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat. The entire northwest India is expected to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during the next two days.

On Thursday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Barmer, Jodhpur, Ajmer, Jaipur, Narnaul, Rohtak, Ludhiana and Amritsar. Conditions are favourable for further advancement of monsoon over remaining parts of east Rajasthan, Haryana and most parts of west Rajasthan during the next five days.

Onset of monsoon over Delhi and neighbourhood occurred as monsoon easterlies from the Bay managed to blow into the region, reducing the persisting wedge-like area of resistance considerably overnight. In fact, the monsoon had already steamrolled along the limbs of the wedge to reach Sindh (Pakistan) in the south and the western Himalayas to the north and ahead of schedule.

This made for a geographical coverage more or less in line with normal monsoon, save a few exceptions. Even these would be taken care of as the Bay storm crosses coast and traverses the landmass along a customary west-northwest trajectory.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting indicated that the overall wet regime would sustain over the first 10 days of July as deduced from trends for available forecast periods. The existing deep depression in the Bay would have left behind a remnant circulation in the Bay of Bengal, which is forecast to develop as another tropical storm by July 3.

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