The Hindu Business Line : Arabian sea sees intense activity as ‘low’ grows

Feverish activity in the Arabian Sea will be more or less matched in the Bay of Bengal with a counterpart ‘low’ taking shape to the southeast of the basin.

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 26 The ‘low’ over the southeast Arabian Sea has become ‘well marked’ on Thursday, signalling the first round of intensification of the weather system that models say could go on to become a tropical depression.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already issued an advisory saying that the system is expected to concentrate into a depression over the next two days. Lakshadweep is expected to get a pounding from fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall during this period.

The system will get careened to the north-northwest that takes it straight for an eventful landfall over Oman, but associated rain bands tossed around by the north-northeasterlies could lash parts of north Konkan and southwest Gujarat.

A few models ventured to suggest re-curving of the system to the northeast at the instance of the powerful anticyclone, which could send it hurtling in towards Gujarat. But this outlook is not evidently backed by model consensus.

Bay activity

Feverish activity in the Arabian Sea will be more or less matched in the Bay of Bengal with a counterpart ‘low’ taking shape to the southeast of the basin. This is expected to track to the west-northwest in near copybook fashion, and will intensify in the process.

The Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast is a probable area for landfall, but opinion is divided on the strength and intensity that could mark the run-in down the home stretch. Most weather models seem to settle for a depression, but some others see a tropical cyclone in the making here as well.

Outlook

The IMD outlook indicates fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and parts of the south peninsula during the next two days. The rainfall activity is likely to escalate over south peninsula once the ‘low’ takes shape in the southeast Bay. The warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea could help the northeast monsoon in India, says Dr Swadhin Behera, a scientist researcher with the Japan Marine Science and Technology Centre (JAMSTEC).

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which also favours good monsoon rains in Tamil Nadu and eastern Sri Lanka, will prevail for some more time in the Indian Ocean. But the warming of the southwest Indian Ocean and cooling of the Indonesian seas in this manner has knocked out the La Nina climes for Australia, Dr Behera said. The country has since come under the grip of a drought, with adverse implications for its farm economy.

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