The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ strengthens as Bay beeps for successor

The Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts, Telangana, Vidarbha and northern stretches of Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra are expected to benefit from the extended rains.

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 10 The tail of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of enhanced wet weather transiting the Bay of Bengal and walloping the South China Sea/Northwest Pacific is churning these seas concurrently.

The west-to-east travelling MJO wave has alternating enhanced and suppressed rainfall phases and has implications for the seasonal weather over regions traversed by it from West Africa and the Indian Ocean to further east.

The Bay of Bengal is among the first water bodies to take a hit, and is now currently hosting a well-marked ‘low’ off Andhra Pradesh triggering widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls along the coast.

But forecast for a stronger system in a week’s time is still being maintained, which promises another round of heavy to very rains for various parts of the peninsula at least until September 20.

POUNDING MAY GO ON

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) sees the pounding along the west coast going on until September 26.

The southern parts of the coast and the larger peninsula would be spared, thanks to a suppressed MJO phase creeping in from the equatorial Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka.

The Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts, Telangana, Vidarbha and northern stretches of Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra are also expected to benefit from the extended rains, says COLA.

Meanwhile, a raging Typhoon Sinlaku has whipped up itself into a Category-3 storm in the Northwest Pacific to the northeast of Philippines. The London-based Tropical Storm Group sees it strengthening further to Category-4 status while moving east-northeast but winding down to hit Japan as a Category-2 storm.

A powerful storm moving northeast in the Pacific is contra-indicative for the Indian monsoon since these two systems are embedded in the larger trough covering these regions.

But the fact that the latter would see two back-to-back systems in action over the Bay is proof of the strength of the monsoon flows.

WIDESPREAD RAINS

India Meteorological Department said in its update on Wednesday that the well-marked ‘low’ over the west-central Bay off the Andhra Pradesh coast would trigger fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Orissa during the next two days.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls has been forecast along the west coast during the next three days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Orissa.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely along the west coast and parts of north peninsular India during the three days ending September 15.

During the 24 hours ended Wednesday morning, the monsoon was vigorous over South Konkan-Goa and active over North Konkan and Marathawada. Rainfall occurred at a few places over South Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places over North Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat region and Saurashtra.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over South Konkan-Goa, at many places over North Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, at a few places over South Gujarat and at isolated places over North Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch.

ACTIVE IN SOUTH

The Met Centre, Chennai, said in an update that the monsoon was active over Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal and North interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.

Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and coastal Karnataka, at many places over Lakshadweep and North interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at many places over Andhra Pradesh and Interior Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during the next two days and isolated heavy rain is also likely to occur over Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka during the same period.

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