The Hindu Business Line : Wet spell holds in east, sporadic over peninsula

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 5 Thundershower activity over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will scale up ahead of the arrival of a western disturbance, the window for which has been pushed forward to Tuesday-Thursday.

On Sunday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) located the western disturbance as an upper air system over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan.

Weather-causing cyclonic circulations were traced to over madhya Maharashtra, the southeast Arabian Sea off the Karnataka–Kerala coast and south Tamil Nadu.

Remnant monsoon circulations were triggering rains or thundershowers in the east and the northeast.

Forecasts said the activity over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and coastal Orissa would continue for another 24 hours.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya during the next two days, a separate warning issued by the IMD said.

ACTIVE IN NORTH-EAST

In the north-east, the monsoon continued to be active and rains are predicted to intensify over many places over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh.

Towards central India and adjoining peninsula, rain or thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and madhya Maharashtra.

Outlook for the three days ending October 10 said scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the northeastern States while it will be scattered over the western Himalayan region.

Other regions which can look forward to varied spells of isolated thundershowers over the next few days are Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, south Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, and Andhra Pradesh.

WARMING INDIAN OCEAN

Meanwhile, tropical convection and associated thunderstorm activity is expected to break out over equatorial Indian Ocean `any time from now’ what with the seawaters getting warmed up anomalously to `well beyond the threshold.’

International models ventured to suggest that thunderstorms may dig their heels in during the fortnight ending October 18 before progressing east and northeast into the Bay of Bengal. In this manner, the focussed attention to budding activity in the Bay might get pushed forward by a week to October 18 to 24.

The hitherto hyperactive Northwest Pacific basin is now forecast to lie quiescent during this period under the influence of a suppressed convective phase left behind by a passing periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.

In fact, it is enhanced convection being heralded by another MJO wave exiting West Africa and moving east which would set the warming equatorial Indian Ocean on fire over the next few weeks.

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