The North-East monsoon could witness a revival of sorts from next week even as low-pressure area expectedly materialising tomorrow would keep it alive in the interregnum.

Likely to be positioned over North Andaman Sea, the ‘low’ would be a remnant of a tropical depression (named Kirogi ) in the South China Sea off the Vietnam coast.

Poorly organised system

This could also be a precursor to revival of the North-East monsoon, which last saw a depression spin up over West-Central Bay of Bengal but drag the rains away from the Tamil Nadu coast.

On Monday, the incoming ‘low’ had reached the Gulf of Thailand, the transit point outside the territorial waters. It may not strengthen much in the Andaman Sea or the larger Bay of Bengal.

In fact, the northern flanks of the poorly organised system would be exposed to the elements as it moves towards the South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts and generate rain over those regions.

The rains would later grow further to the north, covering up to Chennai, but the momentum would shift again beyond the borders, to the Malacca Strait and adjoining Malaysia and Indonesia.

Cyclone watch in Bay

A likely ‘low’ growing here is forecast to reach the tip of Indonesia and adjoining South-South-East Bay of Bengal and travel west-north-west towards Sri Lanka initially.

Early wind-field projections of the India Met Department (IMD) show prospects of a tropical cyclone developing from the system by the time it approaches Sri Lanka next week, last of the month.

It may be recalled that the US Climate Prediction Centre has already marked out the Bay under watch for cyclone formation during November 22 and 28.

A weather tracker of the US agency too points to the prospects of storm formation off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu during end-November and rains reaching Chennai and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Above normal rains

The southern peninsula, including the Met subdivisions of the North-East monsoon regions, would get normal to above normal rainfall during this period.

Rainfall statistics for the period October 1-November 15 shows that except Coastal Andhra Pradesh, most of the Met subdivisions have recorded normal rainfall.