Rain deficit over East and North-East India has improved markedly except in Bihar and Uttar Pradeshwhere it stays above 40 per cent even as the monsoon enters the last week of this penultimate month of August, also normally the second rainiest, and stays moderate to strong over other parts of the country on Wednesday morning.
The rain-spewing depression has weakened a notch lower as a well-marked low-pressure area over the south-western parts of the desert Rajasthan where the monsoon has delivered in surplus so far in a pattern on view during the last few seasons. That the western end of the land-based monsoon trough has lain south of its normal position for the better part of the ongoing season as it did on Wednesday morning has helped. An incoming western disturbance lay just across the border over South Pakistan, adding further to the rain potential in the region on Wednesday.
Rainfall for North-West, South
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said the 12 hours ending yesterday (Tuesday) evening saw rainfall at most places over Coastal Karnataka, plains of West Bengal and Sikkim; at many places over East Rajasthan, East Gujarat; Konkan, Goa, Lakshadweep, Madhya Maharashtra, and Jharkhand; and at a few places over West Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, Kerala, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh; and at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam, and Meghalaya.
Circulation triggers fresh spell
Meanwhile, a fresh spell of moderate to heavy rain has broken out over East India, North-East India, and parts of Peninsular India as another cyclonic circulation has formed over North-East Bay of Bengal, just as forecast. It may propel towards the rain-deficient Bihar, and later into adjoining East-Central India before clawing back its way North to the Himalayan foothills in Uttar Pradesh. Just around the time, the monsoon will open another front over the South Peninsular from the Tamil Nadu side thanks to a fresh circulation forming over the South-West Bay and moving across towards Coastal Karnataka before slipping into the South-East Arabian Sea, raining it down all the way.
West start to September
This could signal a wet start to September both over the South Peninsula and North-West India, especially over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining hills and plains. A number of global weather models have continued to indicate normal to above normal rain for the last month of the season when the monsoon starts to retreat from the extreme north-western parts of the country, i.e. Rajasthan. Assuming that the withdrawal starts on time, it remains to be seen whether it will keep to schedule through the rest of its course in East India and South Peninsula.