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The rainfall trend for the next two weeks indicates the possibility of shared gains for most parts of the country, cutting across spatial and temporal scales. If the India Met Department (IMD) forecasts were to hold, this would make for the most ideal phase of the monsoon on show yet, though some places could witness flood conditions.
TWO CIRCULATIONS
The first week (July 5 to 11) would see rains escalating over East and adjoining Central and North Peninsular India, as twin cyclonic circulations hum away over land but close to the Bay of Bengal.
They will combine to pull down the western end of the monsoon trough in the North to its normal position, without which the moisture and rain cannot penetrate the interior farmlands.
Low-pressure areas/ cyclonic circulations anchored in the waters are ideally the best to power the monsoon in this manner, but those over land in close proximity to the sea are good enough. They fan the moisture into the interior, as south-westerly winds around the system turn to the north-easterlies and easterlies, and pump in moisture/ rain.
During the second week (July 12 to 18), rainfall activity would increase over most parts of the country outside the North-East and adjoining East India, where it could be below normal.
LOW PRESSURE AREAS
This would provide a breather to parts of the East and North-East India, which have been witnessing heavy to very heavy rainfall. Significantly, the IMD has signalled back-to-back low-pressure areas forming in the Bay to initiate a productive phase of the monsoon.
It sees a fresh low-pressure area/ cyclonic circulation developing over the North Bay during July 9 to 11 (Monday to Wednesday). This would be followed by another 'low' shaping up over the same region during Friday to Sunday, setting up potentially the busiest week for the Bay so far during the monsoon.
An IMD outlook said fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy spells may occur over the north-eastern states, the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka during most days of the first week of July (ending Wednesday, July 11).
HEAVY RAINFALL
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy spells on a few days are very likely to occur over Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathawada and East Madhya Pradesh during this period.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, the Gujarat region and Kerala during the second half of the week, to decrease thereafter.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the remaining parts of the country outside Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Saurashtra, Kutch, Diu and Rajasthan, where light to isolated rainfall activity is forecast.
Overall rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over South Peninsular India and below normal over the remaining parts of the country during the week under reference.
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