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The low-pressure area over North-West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh, as expected, is here for the long haul, and is likely to flare up over Delhi and its neighbourhood.
The India Met Department (IMD) in its bulletin issued this morning has confirmed our projection on the longer shelf life of the system.
INTERACTIVE RAIN
The satellite map this morning shows monsoon easterlies spawned by the system from the Bay of Bengal confronting moist south-westerlies from the Arabian Sea across Gujarat and Rajasthan.
This classic interaction between monsoon winds from the seas is setting up the background for a productive session over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Chandigarh and Haryana.
In the process, the southwesterlies from the Arabian Sea are forecast to prevail, and push the intensified 'low' into Delhi and later into West Uttar Pradesh.
Meanwhile, a fresh 'low' spinning up over the Bay, which would journey into East India, has prompted the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts to visualise another interesting scenario.
It has indicated the possibility of the two ‘lows’ interacting over South Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh, bringing another punishing spell of rain to these areas into the next week.
GAIN FOR DEFICIT AREAS
The IMD has said activity over North India is likely to cause the the eastern end of the monsoon trough to shift to the North, triggering enhanced rainfall over the deficient north-eastern states. These states, along with the Met subdivisions of Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh, are showing up a deficit in the North of the country.
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Chandigarh and Haryana, too, have not received their share of the rains, but some of them are expected to make gains during the next three or four days.
The north-eastern states, where the rains are expected to sustain for five days once the monsoon trough shifts its moorings, along with Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand are expect to improve their status.
A three-day outlook from the IMD said the 'low' would cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over western parts of Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan and East Gujarat.
RAIN OUTLOOK
Its expected strengthening would mean widespread rainfall, with heavy to very heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand today and tomorrow.
As for today, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, East Gujarat and the North-East. Heavy rain has been forecast for Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Bihar, Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya.
The European agency has marked out the Varanasi-Sasaram-Daltonganj-Ambikapur-Singrauli belt falling in the contiguous region spanning East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.
Elsewhere, the rains are likely to be moderate to heavy over Bhilwara, Kota, Tonk, Jaipur and Pirawa in Rajasthan; Karauli, Gwalior, Bhopal, Guna, Sagar, Lalitpur, Jhansi, Indore and Auriya in Madhya Pradesh; besides Banswara, Jhabua, Vadodara; Bhavnagar, Valsad and Boisar in Gujarat.
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