Technical Analysis

Daily Rupee call: Buy INR if it breaches 73.7

Akhil Nallamuthu | Updated on September 25, 2020 Published on September 25, 2020

Losing nearly half a per cent, the rupee (INR) closed at 73.9 yesterday against the dollar (USD). The domestic currency has been facing selling pressure, and the support at 74 holds the key in the short term. A break below this level can bring in fresh short positions further weakening the rupee.

Nevertheless, the rupee has opened with a gap-up today at 73.75. Now it faces the resistance at 73.7. But if the positive beginning translates into the intraday rally and if INR rallies past 73.7, it will most likely move towards 73.5. Subsequent resistance is at 73.3. But if the local currency starts declining, the nearest support is 74. Below that level, support can be spotted at 74.2.

 

The negative sentiment with the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) seems to persist as they sold domestic assets on Thursday as well. The net investments were marked at minus ₹1,885 crore, meaning the net outflow for the week stands at a little over ₹8,400 crore – a significant amount. This has been weighing on the rupee since the beginning of the week. Further selling by the FPIs can mount the pressure on the rupee.

Dollar index

The dollar index that breached the crucial resistance of 94 on Wednesday was trading flat during yesterday session. It has been flat today too, trading at around 94.35 since the beginning of the session. As long as the index can stay above 94, the outlook will remain bullish, and it can rally to 95 and 95.15 in the short run. But if it slips below 94, bears could dominate again dragging the index deeper.

 

Trade strategy

The rupee has begun the session with a gap-up and is currently trading at around the resistance of 73.7. Even though INR has begun the session on the positive note, whether it can sustain, to be seen as 73.7 is a considerable hurdle. Considering that, traders can wait and buy INR with tight stop-loss if it breaks out of the resistance at 73.7.

Supports: 74 and 74.2

Resistances: 73.7 and 73.5

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Published on September 25, 2020
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