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Tuesday, Apr 06, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands absolutely bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to reduce the bull count by a substantial margin, thereby, neutralising the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue.

Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract opened around its previous close. Bulls were in control of major part of the day's trading and took the April contract to an intra-day high of 1875.75.

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During the fag end of the day's trading, bears managed to make a partial recovery. The April contract closed with a gain of 22 points.

The exit level for the long position is locked-up with a decent profit of 33 points. The long position is unlikely to be disturbed on Tuesday. Bearish trigger level for the April contract is still placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. ONGC moved to the third position and GAIL moved to the seventh position. The exit level of the long position in M&M is placed at 471.50.

Bulls were successful in triggering the uptrend in recommended counter — ONGC. The uptrend in CNX IT, ONGC, Satyam and State Bank are likely to be under threat. Traders are left with a lone opportunity for Tuesday's trading. This is likely to exist on the short side of State Bank. This counter is in the uptrend and has closed at 617.50. The exit and bearish trigger levels for State Bank are placed closer to this level. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change.

Punjab National Bank gained entry with the exit of HPCL. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The uptrend in HPCL and IPCL are likely to be terminated at 525.10 and 190.50 respectively.

Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter — Infosys.

Bear domination on Tuesday could be a threat to most of the prevailing uptrend counters.

For Tuesday, traders are left with a lone opportunity. This is likely to exist on the short side of State Bank. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counter are placed closer to its last traded value. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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