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Saturday, Feb 19, 2005

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Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

FRIDAY'S market action was quite indecisive. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading. The market sentiment reading of the tradeable counters stands mildly bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The February month contract opened around its previous close and gained 12 points. Bulls failed to capitalise on its as they succumbed to bear pressure. The February contract moved within a band of 30 points registering an intra-day low of 2051.05. It closed with a loss of six points with respect to Thursday's close.

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Bulls were successful to the extent of terminating the downtrend in the February contract. The short trade exited with a marginal profit of six points. Both bullish and bearish trigger levels for the February contract are quite closer to the current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradeable list underwent a change. Arvind Mill gained entry with the exit of ONGC. The ranking of the list had some changes. Satyam moved to the second position followed by State Bank and Reliance.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Bull pressure on Monday could be a threat to the downtrend in CNX IT and Tata Motors. On the other hand, the lone uptrend counter-Tata Steel is likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters.

Selling in ACC is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Monday is likely to trigger the downtrend in ACC.

Cash segment: There were no new entries to the top-10 tradeable counters in this segment. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. Friday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter-Tata Steel.

Except for the downtrend in Tata Tele, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as eight counters. For Monday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Satyam. Sell level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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