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Wednesday, Apr 20, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Initial gains not held

K. Premkumar

BULLS gained control of the initial hours of Tuesday's trading. Thereafter, bears made a strong comeback and took charge of the day's proceedings. The initial move led to the termination of downtrend in few tradable counters. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull domination on Wednesday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month April contract opened with a bull gap of seven points and went further by another 20 points. Bulls failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bear pressure. The April contract moved within a band of 57 points. It closed lower with a loss of 25 points with respect to Monday's close.

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The day's market action had no impact on the recommended levels. The exit and bullish trigger levels for the April contract are placed quite far away. In the normal course of trading on Wednesday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the second position and Reliance to the fifth position. The short position in Cipla is likely to terminate at 240.05.

Bull domination on Wednesday could be a threat to the downtrend in ONGC and State Bank. On the other hand, the lone uptrend counter-Tata Motors is likely to be terminated. Three opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Selling in PNB is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the last traded value. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in PNB.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter-Tata Motors.

Bear move on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Maruti and Tata Motors. On the contrary, the downtrend in ONGC is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys and State Bank. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in PNB and State Bank. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Infosys. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to the current level. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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