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Friday, Jun 03, 2005

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Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Friday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month June contract opened two points above the previous close and went further by another three points. Thereafter, bears gained control of the day's proceedings. The June contract moved within a band of 31 points. It closed lower with a loss of around 26 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

Bear domination during the day led to the termination of the uptrend in the June contract. The long traded exited without any loss. Entry levels for the June contract on either side are placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. ACC gained entry with the exit of Bank of Baroda. The ranking of the list too had some changes. Tata Steel moved to the second position followed by Satyam and Maruti. The exit level for the short position in Bank of Baroda is placed at 197.55.

None of the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Most of the downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Five opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Selling in Satyam is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Sell level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. Thursday's marker action had no impact on the recommended counter-ONGC.

Bull pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the downtrend in Maruti, State Bank of India and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the lone uptrend counter-Tata Motors is likely to be under threat. For Friday, five opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Reliance. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Friday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Reliance.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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