The Hindu Business Line : Cotton imports may slow down: USDA

COTTON imports into the country may slow down on wider adoption of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton in the medium term. Also, the country has potential to produce enough cotton to meet the demand of spinning mills, says an arm of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

However, quality needs of export-oriented units will keep the market open to imports, the USDA Economic Research Service has said in a special report on `Growth prospects for India's Cotton and Textile Industries'.

"India has the agronomic potential to meet much, if not all, of its future growth in cotton demand domestically. However, it is unclear if and when the necessary productivity gains will be achieved," it said.

Stating that advent of Bt cotton will help in improving production in the medium term, the USDA arm said: "The combination of erratic moisture conditions in rainfed producing areas and weak institutions for delivery of seed, technology, and other inputs seem equally likely to slow the pace of productivity growth."

Bt cotton is a genetically modified variety in which the plant has been engineered to produce insecticidal toxin to protect it from bollworm attack.

"In addition, meeting rising demand for quality cotton - particularly contamination-free cotton - will require changes in the cotton supply chain that are unlikely to be implemented quickly," it said.

Still, the prospects for net cotton exporters such as the US was not bright in view of the adoption of Bt cotton, the USDA Economic Research Service said.

Production had increased since 2000 and more recently in view of rise in acreage, but uncertainty prevailed if the gain could be sustained.

"Output continues to show large annual variations primarily due to weather-induced fluctuations in average yields. About 65 per cent of cotton area is not irrigated and is dependent on erratic monsoon rainfall, a share that has remained relatively constant since the late 1980s," it said.

Pointing out that production declined during 1990s due to a variety of reasons, including weather-related problems and pest attacks, the USDA body said during the last several years, yields had improved significantly in the North, largely due to the availability and increased planting of higher yielding, short-duration hybrid varieties.

On the other hand, Central India, which accounts for 63 per cent of the area under the crop but with only 16 per cent of it being irrigated, had registered a five per cent growth in terms of production and three per cent in terms of yield to catch up with the North and South.

Dwelling on low yields, the report cited delayed sowing; vagaries of monsoon; poor seed quality, management and plant protection methods; and lack of suitable varieties as the reasons.

On Bt cotton, the USDA arm said rapid rise in its cultivation showed that farmers realised its benefit despite the seed cost being three times that of ordinary variety seeds.

The report said US cotton, which enjoyed an average 22 per cent market share during 1998-2002, should be competitively priced with Africa and other supplies to keep its place in tact.

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