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Vinson Kurian

Forecasters less optimistic about a new `low' predicted to take shape in the Bay

Thiruvananthapuram , July 10

Monsoon covered more parts of East Rajasthan and remaining parts of Haryana and Punjab on Monday with forecasters becoming less convinced about the credentials of the fresh monsoon `low' predicted to form in the Bay of Bengal by the weekend.

The ongoing rainfall in the northwest is tipped to recede from Friday, as a fresh western disturbance with a pack of northwesterlies will expectedly chase away feeble easterlies from the region, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

The northwesterlies travel from west to east and would take the rain belt away to the eastern States where the monsoon is already in an active phase. The seasonal trough is currently located along the foothills of the Himalayas, which confirms the state of affairs.

Meanwhile, forecasters are less optimistic about a new `low' forecast to take shape in the Bay brewing to full strength.

Penetration of monsoon easterlies is seen limited to a bare minimum, which will ensure that the system dissipates sooner than later. The resultant rainfall session will therefore not last long.

Land-based low

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said a land-based `low' has formed over Bangladesh and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal. The system is likely to move west-northwest but the rains will be confined to north. Only pure monsoon systems will have associated cloud formations raining it down to the south or southwest.

The NCMRWF said the northern limit of monsoon passed through Udaipur, Dholpur, Alwar, Pilani and Sriganaganagar on Monday. Model predictions suggest that conditions are favourable for its further advance into entire East Rajasthan and parts of West Rajasthan during the next 72 hours.

Model prediction also indicate widespread rain with heavy to very heavy falls over West Bengal, the Northeastern States, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab.

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Fresh monsoon `low' less reassuring

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