The Hindu Business Line : Bay waters threaten to warm up again

The Bay of Bengal is warming to host another migratory system from the South China Sea/Northwest Pacific, which will be the latest to join an assembly line of monsoon systems crossing the country's eastern coast to create floods in the peninsular States.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) issued an alert to this effect, but added a caveat that confidence levels in the formation of a monsoon `low' are not that high. This is something that needs to be watched closely, said Mr J.V. Singh of the NCMRWF.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

Model predictions have suggested the possibility of formation of a preparatory cyclonic circulation in the middle troposphere over Bay of Bengal around Friday (August 18). This circulation would have to come down to lower levels to set up the `low.'

Meanwhile, torrential rainfall from an array of monsoon systems over the last three weeks has helped confine rain-deficit met divisions to the Northeast, Western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar. Rayalaseema is expected to gain from the ongoing spell of rain.

CROSSES LAND

Friday's well-marked `low' over North Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression as forecast, moving in a west-northwest direction. The system crossed the North Orissa coast near Balasore on Saturday night, upon which it weakened into a well marked `low'. On Sunday, it was located over Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood.

The system will keep moving in a west-northwest direction over land. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls over South Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.

Heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over East Madhya Pradesh and North Telangana while it will be isolated heavy over the western parts of South Orissa during the next 2-3 days.

As the system moves further west-northwest, rainfall activity is expected to pick up over West Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa over the subsequent 3 to 4 days.

ACTIVE MONSOON

Saturday's resident well marked `low' over Southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood has weakened into a `low' and is located over the southern parts of West Rajasthan and neighbourhood. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Gujarat and Southwest Rajasthan.

Monsoon is likely to remain active over Central and Peninsular India during the next week as well, the NCMRWF said.

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