The Hindu Business Line : Low pressure in Bay may stay put

A new low-pressure area has materialised in the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, but indications are that it will lay anchored to the place of genesis for a while.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) traced the `low' to east central and adjoining northeast Bay. Even at this distance, it would be able to drive up rainfall along the east coast over the next 2-3 days, at times extending into Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu.

TIME TO RECOUP

Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology said the westerly flows and moisture feed over the Bay will take some time to recoup after most of it was lost to Cyclone Mukda in the Arabian Sea and the depression in east India.

Barely had the two started to fade when a `big brother' tropical system blew up over the northwest Pacific. Tropical Storm Xangsane has ramped up many times overnight to become the latest super typhoon on Wednesday. It has crossed into Philippines, and is expected to enter the South China Sea by the weekend.

The Bay system is expected to intensify after the super typhoon spends itself out and the `low' in east India (from an earlier depression) fades completely. Given this, no final word can be said about which direction it is likely to take for forward movement. Consensus opinion favours a landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast.

PROJECTED TRACK

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that rugged highlands make the Philippines an area for weakening and track realignment for storms whose path cross its shores. Xangsane will be sapped of some of its wind fury, at least until it becomes re-established over the South China Sea.

Friday should be the day when Xangsane leaves the northern Philippines for South China Sea.

WITHDRAWAL PHASE

The NCMRWF said the southwest monsoon withdrew from entire Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, remaining Haryana and West Rajasthan and more parts of East Rajasthan on Wednesday.

The withdrawal line passed through Pilibhit, Bareilly, Dholpur, Sawai-Madhopur and Barmer.

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