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Anti-cyclone seen affecting easterly wave

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 3

The incoming easterly wave is seen drifting progressively into the strong anti-cyclonic circulation over land, which may not allow it to grow beyond a point over the Bay of Bengal waters.

The wave will most likely break apart and lose some of its sting on entering the southeast Bay of Bengal waters. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts depicts it as foraying into the South Andaman Sea, its first port of call, as a much stronger system.

RAIN OUTLOOK

Southern Tamil Nadu still stands to receive rainfall early next week from what looks like a depleted wave. It will proceed to cross into adjoining Kerala and roll over into the southeast Arabian Sea to become insignificant, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology. In any case, a preparatory cyclonic circulation is predicted to form over the Andaman Sea by Monday, the EMCWF said in its outlook.

FOG TO RETURN

But Dr Gupta maintained the outlook for the return of dense fog conditions to Delhi by the weekend coinciding with the passage of a large-amplitude western disturbance. Fog will result from the `katabatic winds' blowing downhill from further north in the Himalayas, dumping moisture over the plains.

The moisture is drawn from the warm front-end of the western disturbance. It is only during the last 10 years that this type of fog has come to engulf the national capital; Monday's instance was the first during this winter, Dr Gupta said.

An update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting said that the movement of an existing western disturbance towards the east led to a fall in night temperatures on Tuesday. This triggered cold wave conditions at some places over Punjab and isolated pockets of Jammu division of Jammu and Kashmir, north Haryana and north Rajasthan.

Some parts of Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan experienced frost as well. Model predictions suggest these conditions will continue to exist during the next 24-36 hours. Thereafter night temperatures over northwest India may rise by two to three deg C thanks to warming from the front end of the approaching westerly.

Under its influence, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal will receive scattered snowfall and parts of plains in Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh isolated showers on Friday and Saturday. Night temperatures over northwest India will fall again with the passage of the system to further east.

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