The Hindu Business Line : Respite for northwest could be cut short

The respite in weather for northwest India could get cut short by at least a day, with another big western disturbance brewing far west in Europe (over Turkey, to be precise) and expected to take a course that takes it straight into India.

This would be more or less of the same strength as the one that hit the northwest last (on March 11), dumping snow in the hills and heavy rain/isolated hail over the plains, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

Forecasters are expecting that the sun would shine hard over the plains until March 20, but indications are that the impending westerly system could jump the gun and roll into the region as early as by March 18-19.

Rabi wheat crop watchers should watch out for the intensity with which it unfolds.

Predictions made by Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com are not dissimilar either.

There is a winter storm dipping southward over Turkey, he said, which is expected to "dig a deep trough" over the eastern Mediterranean basin over the next 1-2 days.

The Mediterranean is the springboard for India-bound western disturbances, and this deep trough could possibly trigger the next in line. Associated cold, soaking rains and ice would travel into Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, before hitting the home stretch.

RAY OF HOPE

But Dr Ramesh held out a ray of hope emerging from an otherwise cloudy horizon - early signals of dislodgement of the semi-permanent trough that has been sitting over North Pakistan and adjoining West Rajasthan for too long now.

Presence of this trough has had a catalytic effect on the feeblest western disturbance brushing past it, transforming it into a full-blooded weather system overnight.

Expectations are that a high-pressure system (ridge, marked by dry and sinking air) would take its place. This is capable of mopping up moisture from approaching western disturbances.

WORD OF CAUTION

In this manner, its ability to create weather inside India's territory would be severely compromised.

But Dr Ramesh added a note of caution saying that a final word on this could be said only after the biggie system has hit the northwest and moved into the east of the country.

An update put out by the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) on Wednesday said that the prevailing western disturbance was active over the eastern States.

It will move away further eastward causing fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with isolated heavy rains over eastern and north-eastern States over the next two days.

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