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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram May 13 The low-pressure area over east central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression and lay 400 km northwest of Port Blair on Sunday morning with prospects of further intensification.

The system is tipped to move north and spin faster to reach cyclonic strength over the warm waters of the Head Bay before likely crossing either the West Bengal or Bangladesh coast, according to varied projections made by international weather models.

CYCLONE OUTLOOK

An alert posted on the Ohio State University tropical weather information site on Sunday said that formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible in the next 24 to 48 hours within a 325-km radius of the current position of the parent depression.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots (46 to 56 km/h).

The gust will need to clock 34 knots (63 km/h) for being classified as a cyclone.

The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy assessed the speed of the core of winds associated with the depression as 25 knots.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said that a deepening trough over eastern India is helping improve the flows, while wind shear (which kills storms) is low to moderate in the region.

`FAIR POTENTIAL'

The JTWC assessed the sea level pressure associated with the system is showing a tendency to drop.

Combined with the consolidating flows at the required heights, it assessed as `fair' the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

The brewing storm may impact parts of West Bengal coast, Myanmar and the Andaman Islands.

In its Sunday bulletin, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) agreed that the system was travelling to the north.

While putting it under watch for further intensification, however, it did not indicate whether it would become a cyclone.

MONSOON ACTIVE

The IMD said that conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon to some parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, more parts of southeast and east central Bay of Bengal and most parts of Andaman sea during the next 48 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the north eastern States during the next 2-3 days.

A bulletin put out by the Ministry of Earth Sciences on Saturday observed that the monsoon current was `active' in the Bay.

Prediction available for the next five days suggested that build-up over the Arabian Sea region may get set slightly ahead of schedule.

In this manner, the monsoon flows in the region may get established a week earlier than normal.

May 18 and 19 will see the cross-equatorial flows picking up in strength along the Somali coast, while heading into the Arabian Sea.

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Models say depression in Bay may become cyclone

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