The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon seen building in cyclone Gonu's wake

Thiruvananthpauram June 5 Super cyclone Gonu has been accorded the maximum possible category-5 status as it threatened oil installations and shipments along the Omani coast but models indicated a sudden swerve in the storm path towards southern Iran.

Gonu has weakened slightly and the journey to southern Iran as a considerably weakened storm will take it across the Gulf of Oman.

The landfall and subsequent weakening of the storm are expected to create favourable conditions for monsoon flows to re-build in the Arabian Sea. The Bay of Bengal is already showing some signs of life as evidenced in the cloudiness along the southeastern coast.

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, numerical models are suggesting that once Gonu weakens on crossing the Omani coast, the monsoon flow may take only a couple of days to re-converge (by Saturday/Sunday).

ONSET IN NORTHEAST

Predictions suggest that, concurrently, a north-south trough in westerlies would get anchored over the North-Eastern States, aiding the accentuation of rains over the region.

This trough will combine with the converging flows to help the monsoon resume its northward journey over the peninsula from Saturday.

The onset of monsoon may take place over the North-Eastern States by Sunday.

The model outlook suggests that, over the subsequent three days, there is a good chance of strong monsoon flows establishing over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

This will create favourable conditions for progress along the Konkan coast (up to Mumbai) and also on the eastern front (up to West Bengal).

The region will see `full-blown monsoon' conditions setting in from June 12-14, Dr Gupta said.

The strong monsoon flows will penetrate the peninsula and extend its influence across the east coast.

In this manner, the `in-between' regions in the north peninsula will also have been covered.

HEAT WAVE PEAKING

But Dr Gupta warned that the heat wave in the north and northwest would get aggravated for at least four days from Thursday.

Mercury is seen breaching 45 deg C at many places in the region, including the plains (Haryana, Punjab, North Rajasthan and Western Uttar Pradesh) and parts of central India.

According to him, convective activity will be reduced to practically nil during this period, bringing down dust storm/thunderstorm activity considerably.

This will allow for the heat to build further.

There may be some relief for the eastern parts including Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa after Friday in view of the approaching onset of monsoon.

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