The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone forecast over southwest Gujarat coast

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 7 Monday’s deep depression over interior Orissa moved west-northwestwards, weakened into a depression, and lay centred over Chhattisgarh on Tuesday morning, but created waves over the west coast some distance away.

This is because it is engaged in a tango with a cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea over southwest Gujarat (holding one end of the offshore trough), bringing extended cloudburst-like conditions in these areas.

The threat of flooding rainfall will be significant from Gujarat to northwest Maharashtra for the next two to three days owing to the strong monsoon depression and the greatly enhanced southwesterlies south of its westward track, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com.

According to him, the already inundated areas between the northern end of the Western Ghats and southern Kathiawar would seem to be at highest risk of more high falls of rain.

Projections suggest that the land-based depression might undergo another round of intensification on its west-northwestward course. It is set to ‘gulp down’ the cyclonic circulation to grow in strength and intensity.

Cyclone likely

The merged entity could spin up as a tropical cyclone over southwest Gujarat coast by this weekend, stay there for a while before sliding into the sea and away from the Indian coast.

Normally, the Gujarat belt provides the best setting for mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulations (MTC) to drop anchor, in which case the ensuing rainfall lasts for weeks together. But this is not indicated, at least for now.

Advance estimates by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) says that August 7 to 14 will see southwest Gujarat record 500 per cent more rainfall than is normal for the period. This will range from 300-400 per cent for Konkan-Goa (including Mumbai) and 100-150 per cent for coastal Karnataka.

More rain for Konkan

These assessments say that the Konkan-Goa belt would continue to receive heavy downpour during the subsequent week (August 14 to 21) as well, apparently under the influence of succeeding weather systems emerging from the Bay.

Next low?

Going forward, the IMD has maintained the watch for the next ‘low’ over north Bay of Bengal for Thursday, which would raise rainfall over Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh in a fresh spell. Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest the formation of yet another system by August 16.

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