The Hindu Business Line : Autumn leaves in Washington

With India moving into election mode, the focus is naturally on coalition compulsions and deflecting attention from the messy handling of the Ram Sethu issue. But the world will not stand still as New Delhi grapples with internal crises. Those who study world developments in India should bear this in mind, says G. PARTHASARATHY

With the approach of winter, one of the most enthralling aspects of being in Washington DC in September is the staggering beauty of the golden red leaves shining in the morning sun, before, to quote American crooner Nat King Cole, “the autumn leaves start to fall”. But the troubles that the Bush Administration now faces at home and abroad are such that one wonders if the advent of spring is going to bring it any warmth, given the seeming intractability of the p roblems it faces on the world stage.

While various reasons are given for the invasion of Iraq, the universally respected economist and former long-time Chairman of the Federal Reserve dropped a bombshell when I was in Washington, proclaiming: “I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows — that the Iraq war is largely about oil”.

As American casualties mount in Iraq, comparisons are inevitably being made to the Vietnam debacle, as the US struggles to extricate itself from a costly and domestically unpopular war. But it is now clear that the painful decision to finally withdraw will have to be taken by a successor Administration after George Bush relinquishes office in January 2009.

The Democratic Party senses that it will return to the corridors of power soon and its foreign policy pundits are busy deciding what its priorities are going to be when they return to strut across the corridors of the White House, State Department and Pentagon. This, despite the fact that large sections of the American people are not too comfortable at the thought of the Hillary Clinton (a woman) or Barack Obama (an African American) becoming the President.

The first change one could see with a Democratic Party Administration is that rather than act unilaterally or through a small “coalition of the willing” there will be much greater emphasis on acting through multilateral institutions such as the UN and the G-8. Like during the Clinton Administration, a future Democratic Administration will return to a policy of extensive engagement with China, which would include even greater military-to-military exchanges.

Nuclear deal

Journalists and academics close to the Democratic Party believe that China’s current flirtations with an increasingly assertive Russia are a “marriage of convenience,” which lacks substantive economic content and cannot be abiding. Interestingly, Democratic Party insiders seem quite ready to accord China the role of a “benign hegemon” in East Asia.

Those in India enthusiastic about moulding India-US relations on the basis of a joint effort to “contain” China would do well to bear this in mind.

Indians visiting Washington and meeting members of the foreign policy establishment there cannot but note the astonishment in American minds about the strong opposition in India to the Indo-US nuclear deal. The non-proliferation Ayatollahs of the Clinton Administration, however, feel that as the deal ultimately clears the way and puts an end to India’s international isolation on nuclear issues, it will be accepted in India.

They also acknowledge that in these circumstances the US Congress will approve the 123 Agreement in its present form, in what is called an “up and down vote”, where amendments are not considered. But one should have no illusions that the old Clinton Agenda of wanting to “cap, roll back and eliminate” India’s nuclear weapons programme has been forgotten or discarded by the Clintonites.

Those who lobbied for the deal recall that both Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Obama supported “killer amendments,” which were rejected, when the Hyde Act was passed.

Enforcing treaties

While the Bush Administration has not taken any India-specific measures on nuclear issues, it appears certain that if the Democrats take charge of the White House, high priority will be given to rejuvenating such measures as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) and the Convention on Biological Weapons.

When these enthusiasts are reminded that it is unlikely that they can get a two-thirds majority in the US Senate to ratify the CTBT there is hushed silence. But India should be under no doubt that a Democratic Administration will apply immense pressure to get it to accede to treaties like the CTBT and an FMCT.

A Task Force comprising K. Subrahmanyam, Arundhati Ghose and Shyam Saran is at present looking into these issues. They would be well-advised to recall the skilful manner in which Mr Vajpayee deflected pressure on the CTBT by proclaiming that India would not stand in the way of the CTBT coming into force.

There is also need for firmness that any FMCT should be non-discriminatory and internationally verifiable, especially given China’s clandestine nuclear and missile transfers to Pakistan.

New whipping boy

If Saddam Hussein was the favourite whipping boy in Washington not too long ago, that role has now been taken over by Iran’s President, Mr Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. The latter owes the ogre-like image he evokes primarily to the anti-Semitic statements he has made, including questioning the historical accuracy of the holocaust and threatening to “wipe out” Israel from the world’s map.

And one should have no doubt that American pressures on our ties with Iran are set to continue, irrespective of who is in office in Washington. It is now clear that weapons supplied by Iran are finding their way into the hands of Shiite radicals in Iraq and even the Taliban.

Policy-makers in Washington will do well to introspect on why the viciously anti-Taliban Iranians, who supported India and Russia in supporting the Afghan “Northern Alliance”, are now making common cause with those who were their implacable foes only a few years earlier.

Political engineering

Apart from Iraq the two other countries receiving maximum attention in Washington are Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is widespread acknowledgement in the US administration that, even as he swore undying loyalty to America’s “War on Terror”, Gen Musharraf was allowing the Taliban to regroup and rearm itself on Pakistani soil. Despite this, it is an article of faith in Washington that Gen Musharraf remains America’s “best bet” in Pakistan.

The entire focus now is on seeing how the General can continue in office with Ms Benazir Bhutto, who is seen to be vulnerable on charges of corruption and money laundering, as a junior partner providing a facade of political legitimacy. Whether this feat of “external political engineering” will succeed remains to be seen. But whether it is Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iran, Saudi Arabia remains a powerful political ally of Washington.

Interestingly the need to step up defence and economic ties with India enjoys bipartisan support in Washington. Policies like seeking Indian involvement with the G-8 and on global environmental issues will continue, irrespective of who occupies the White House.

With India now moving into the election mode, there is naturally more interest on how to deal with the tantrums of the Central leaderships of the Left Parties and deflecting attention from messy handling of the Ram Sethu affair. But the world will not stand still as New Delhi grapples with its internal crises. Those who study world developments in India would do well to bear this in mind.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)