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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 24 A monsoon ‘low’ has popped up over southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka, even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast the formation of successor system over southeast Bay around Saturday.

The prevailing ‘low’ is tipped to move north-northwest, cross the peninsula and slither into the southeast Arabian Sea where it will resuscitate the remnants of a cyclonic circulation. By the weekend, the combined entity will undergo intensification first into a depression, as per IMD assessment.

According to international weather models, the system will feed on the warm seawaters in the east and central Arabian Sea to power its way onto the status of a likely tropical cyclone. The helpful wind circulation associated with the anticyclone will help it steer across in a north-northwest direction and slam into the Oman coast in due course.

Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal continues to witness convective forcing from across the territorial waters with moisture pipeline extending from the South China Sea and the Indonesia Sea. The ‘low’ expected to break out over the southeast Bay (Andaman Sea) holds the promise of setting up a strong system in the Bay.

Given the considerable distance that it would need to traverse in a decidedly north-northwest direction, the system could set up a monsoon depression, first of the season in the Bay basin. Its behaviour will be closely watched for signs of intensification into a still stronger system.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been consistently showing a strong system (likely a named tropical cyclone) treading close to southern Oman around October 30th. As for the Bay, the consensus forecast is for a strong `low’ (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slightly slower to form than earlier thought.

The prevailing ‘low’ in the southwest Bay will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are also likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala during the same period.

The Karaikal-Nagapattinam-Vedaranniyam belt in Tamil Nadu was battered by punishing rains as the ‘low’ became entrenched around the area of genesis on Tuesday. Puducherry also received widespread rain overnight.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast for most places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north interior Karnataka.

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