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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 26 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has assessed that conditions are just about becoming ideal for monsoon to start withdrawing from parts of Northwest India.

What has prompted this is the forecast of mainly dry weather conditions for northwest, west, central and peninsular India over the next five days.

But a growing wet spot has been located to the east and northeast where fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely. Areas seen benefiting include West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura, some of which have received deficient rains so far during the season.

The causative ‘low’ has been persisting over North Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. The rains are forecast to reduce in intensity after three days, the IMD update said on Friday.

Extended forecasts said scattered rainfall activity is likely to continue over the North-eastern States. The retreating monsoon would have as well advanced into some more areas in Northwest India.

International models see passing showers punctuating the ‘weather in transition’ over southern peninsula except in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu through the next week. This would result from a stray circulation ambling in from the central Bay getting accentuated as it exits the west coast into the Arabian Sea.

According to the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, these ‘sprinkler rains’ would hold out until October 3. There is no signal yet of the frenetic activity in the Northwest Pacific/South China Sea resonating in the Bay any time soon.

Seasonal forecasts by leading numerical weather prediction models suggest that winter rains would be largely normal over the Rabi planting areas in the south peninsula and over northwest India. Some others indicate that the outlook is less than promising for parts of East and Northeast India.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees October-November-December rains to be slightly above normal over the northwest peninsular coast and adjoining west-central peninsula, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh.

The UK Met Office outlook is at variance with this and predicts above normal rainfall along an east-northeast swathe extending from the central peninsula and along the southeast coast.

Areas likely to be covered are South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telengana, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and further into coastal Orissa and West Bengal.

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