The Hindu Business Line : Wet weather on as cyclone remnant lingers

“Forecast signals seen for India during December-February, particularly in the south, are related more to those in Indochina all the way from the western Pacific.”

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 30 A remnant circulation from erstwhile cyclone Nisha lingered over the east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea off the Karnataka-Konkan-Goa coasts on Sunday commandeering a steady stream of moisture across the peninsula.

Thundershowers have since broken out over Tamil Nadu and further to the west-northwest covering parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra from overnight.

Rains could now extend up to even Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as helpful local atmospheric features bring to bear their influence, said an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Associated cloud cover is seen propping up mercury over these regions.

MERCURY UP

IMD estimated that minimum temperatures are above normal by 6-7 deg C over parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telengana; 4-6 deg C over Karnataka and parts of the northwest; and 2-4 deg C over the rest of the country except the northeast and east.

These conditions are likely to hang around during the next two days as well.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada during the next 24 hours.

Isolated thundershowers are likely over Gujarat too.

Vidarbha, southwest Madhya Pradesh and south Chhattisgarh also would come under some wet weather.

Forecast up to December 5 said that scattered rainfall activity is likely to continue over south peninsula.

CYCLONE WATCH

Two different weather models run by the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre retained the outlook for moderate cyclone threat for India’s southeast coast around December 5.

The models differed only in their choice for the likely place for the storm’s landfall.

While the Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggested the north Tamil Nadu coast around Chennai for the landfall, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) rooted for a place further to the south (Karaikal-Nagapattinam belt).

Outlook by the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Karnataka and Kerala and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka.

Isolated heavy rain has been warned of in costal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

FORECAST SIGNALS

Meanwhile, Dr Karumuri Ashok, a leading research scientist from the Asia-Pacific region, informed Business Line that forecast signals seen for India during December-February, particularly in the south, are related more to those in Indochina all the way from the western Pacific.

Airing his views in his personal capacity, Dr Ashok said that the deficit rainfall signature in Pakistan and India’s northwest may be associated with that with the Middle East where deficit rainfall conditions have been observed since last few months.

Dr Ashok is associated with the APEC Climate Centre at Busan, South Korea.

The APEC Climate Centre is a major science activity established in November 2005 during the meeting of leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum.

It produces seasonal and monthly forecasts of climate conditions for all seasons around the globe.

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