The Hindu Business Line : Mercury falls as anti-cyclone digs its heels

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 25 Minimum temperatures have fallen by 2-4 degree Celsius over parts of central and east India as cold and dry northwesterlies funnelled through the border aided and abetted by the seasonal anti-cyclone.

They were 2-3 degree Celsius below normal over parts of central and east India and near-normal over northwest India during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

Current meteorological analysis suggests no significant change during the next two-three days.

What could slightly upset the pattern is the arrival of weak western disturbance with its signature warming anomaly from Sunday onwards.

The system was located over north Pakistan and neighbourhood on Thursday. It will get a move to the east-northeast but the impact would be contained to within Jammu & Kashmir and the neighbourhood.

It is likely to take advantage of some ‘unwinding’ in the northern flanks of the anti-cyclone as it moves its core from over the perch over Oman-the Gulf of Eden to the east over north Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat.

But this shift in bearing would be temporary, and the core would revert to its original position towards the month-end and into the New Year. This would mean continuance of the dry and cold regime over the northwest of the country.

DIPPPING INTO BAY

Meanwhile, the movement to the east would bring northwesterlies bending east-southeast and dipping into the North Bay of Bengal from where they would turn north-northeast pumping some moisture into Indo-China.

Cold northeasterlies from the plains of northwest and central India have been filling the peninsular region, where the mercury has fallen to below normal at a number of places.

RAIN, SNOW LIKELY

The IMD has said that rain or snow is likely at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, and rain or thundershowers at isolated places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

In the south, rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over the Nicobar Islands. Isolated rain is likely to occur over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Meanwhile, the Busan, South Korea-based forecaster Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre saw ‘slightly more than above normal’ for south peninsular India during January-February-March, 2009.

In its latest seasonal forecast, the centre said that India would witness ‘above normal temperatures’ during the season though less likely so over the northern and northwestern parts of the country.

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