The Hindu Business Line : Rain may extend to M.P., West Bengal

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb 10 The prevailing western disturbance has thrown up an upper air cyclonic circulation that promises to amplify weather over northwest India even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintained a hailstorm watch on Tuesday.

Isolated heavy precipitation has been warned of over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand for Wednesday as well, an IMD outlook said.

The parent westerly system in combination with the induced cyclonic circulation over central Rajasthan is expected to set off fairly widespread precipitation over the western Himalayan region until Wednesday.

The resultant wet weather would spread out as far to the south as Madhya Pradesh and parts of central India and sub-Himalayan West Bengal to the east over the next few days.

northwest India.

Model prediction suggests a fall in minimum temperatures by 3-4 deg Celsius over west and northwest India from Thursday as the causative system fades out. But another western disturbance is forecast to break out into the western Himalayan region as early as the next day with elevated levels of mercury at some places.

The IMD outlook said that rain or snow is likely at many places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand until Wednesday. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over Punjab and at a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.

Other regions bracing for rainfall of varying amounts over the next few days are Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

CROP IRRIGATION

The light to moderate rains would serve the purpose of a second round of irrigation to wheat sown during December. At other places, the crop has reached the elongation/heading stage and farmers could delay irrigation in view of expected precipitation.

Meanwhile, a number of international models suggested that the warmer (relative to the Bay of Bengal) south-east Arabian Sea might pop up a weak ‘low’ later during this week as it gets churned up by the westerlies.

But its southwest-northeast orientation would limit the impact to Lakshadweep and the sea to its northeast. Some convection has been forecast for in the Bay as well but confined to southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka.

Some models indicated a high-pressure area (ridge, with sinking air) returning to occupy the ‘vanguard’ position across the northwest border after February 18 signalling dry weather for northwest India.

But others are of the view that this would be short-lived and would be replaced by a low-pressure system (trough, with rising air) setting off weather-creating western disturbances until February 22.

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