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Sunday, Apr 17, 2005

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Outlook remains bearish for HLL

B. Krishnakumar

Hindustan Lever (Rs 132.3): The stock is yet to break out of the narrow band in which it has traded for several weeks now.

There is no change in the earlier bearish view for the stock. A close below Rs 127 would impart weakness and could push the stock to Rs 105-110 range. Holders of long positions may have a stop-loss at Rs 128. At least a portion of the holding may be sold on the evidence of resistance at Rs.137-138 range.

Tata Power (Rs.339.6): The stock ruled firm in the early part of the week. The gain recorded on the first three trading days was wiped out by the sharp decline recorded on Friday. The share price ruling is close to the support level at Rs.335-338 range. A drop below Rs.334 would push the stock to Rs.318-320 band. The recent price pattern indicates that the stock would drop to the Rs.318-320 range. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 334; price rally may be used to reduce holdings.

Reliance Ind (Rs 529.7): The stock moved in line with expectations. As observed last week, the stock turned weak after it dropped below the negative trigger level of Rs 552. The near-term outlook remains bearish.

The stock appears to be headed towards the target zone at Rs 510-514 range. While fresh buying may be avoided, exposures may be trimmed on price rally. The negative view would be valid till such time the stock trades below the positive trigger level of Rs 552. Holders of short positions may place the stop-loss at Rs 540.

HDFC (Rs 702.4): Though the stock ruled firm in the early part of the week, it took a knock on Friday along with other frontline stocks. The share price however is still ruling above the support level of Rs 690. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 690. A drop below Rs 690 would push the stock down to the Rs 668-672 range. Fresh exposures may be deferred. The stock faces resistance at the Rs 735-740 range.

Infosys (Rs 1,956.6): The stock ruled weak as expected last week. The stock dropped below the target zone of Rs 2,075- 2,080 range. The sentiment towards the stock was affected on account of the lower-than-expected earnings guidance. The near-term trend appears bearish and the stock could drop to Rs 1,885-1,895 range. The immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,985-1,990 range. A move past this range could push the stock to Rs 2,022-2,030 band. Long positions may be avoided while holders of short positions may have a stop-loss at Rs 2,050.

Follow-up

India Cements (Rs 65.3): Contrary to expectations, the stock ruled weak. The overall bearishness on Friday took a toll on the company's share price as well. This has, however, not altered the positive view as the stock managed to hold above the stop-loss level of Rs 60. The earlier view of a rally to Rs 88-90 range would be in force as long as the stock rules above this level. Fresh exposures may be avoided for the moment while shareholders may have the stop-loss at Rs 60.

Fresh buying may be considered once the price drops closer to the stop-loss level of Rs 60. On the upside, a close above Rs 71 would impart strength. Exposures may be enhanced on a close above this level, with a stop-loss at Rs 66.

Dhampur Sugar (Rs 142.4): The stock moved in line with expectations. It dropped to the short-term support level of Rs 138-140 and closed at Rs 142.4 on Friday. The long-term outlook for remains bullish and a move to Rs 175-180 range appears likely.

Shareholders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 128. Fresh exposures may be considered on price weakness, with a stop-loss at Rs 128. A drop below Rs 127 would negate the positive outlook and would push the stock to Rs 98-100 range. Long positions may be liquidated on the breach of Rs 127.

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