A deep depression, which is only a spin away from being declared a cyclone, lay centred Wednesday evening over the South-East Bay of Bengal about 520 km West-South-West of Port Blair; 1,410 km South-South-West of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh); and 1,300 km South-South-West of Sittwe (Myanmar).

The system has more or less stalled as it sought to move North-North-West. It was expected to intensify into a cyclone (to be named Mocha) later into the night, slightly later than forecast.

The slow pace will aid the intensification of the system. It will gradually strengthen into a severe cyclone by Thursday morning and a powerful very severe cyclone by midnight over South-East and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

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Thunderstorms (in pink dots) bloomed over the South Peninsula on Monday afternoon the back of a low-pressure area popping up over the South-East Bay of Bengal. The ‘low’ is expected to intensify as a depression on Tuesday.

Low-pressure area forms, to strengthen as depression on Tuesday

Strong flows aid development

It may start to recurve and weaken from Friday morning ahead of landfall over South-East Bangladesh and North Myanmar between Cox’s Bazar and Kyaukpyu around forenoon of Sunday with maximum sustained wind speeds of 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph. 

On Wednesday, the deep depression was pulling strong cross-equatorial flows aided by two cyclonic circulations just South of the Equator.

These flows will continue to bring scattered showers with thunderstorms over the Maldives accompanied by heavy showers at times. The onset of the South-West monsoon normally occurs over the archipelago by the middle of May. 

Monsoon onset timeline

While Mocha may bring the monsoon to Myanmar around the normal time (early next week), the onset may be delayed over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the first port of call over Indian territorial waters.

The US Climate Prediction Centre indicates below-normal precipitation for parts of South-East Asia and much of the Indian Ocean until as late as May 30. 

This could delay the onset over Sri Lanka, with the dry patch extending into the southern extremes of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Wet phase of MJO

A subsequent wet phase of the weather-setting MJO is expected to enter the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea during the week from May 29 to June 7.

It may stay parked over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal until June 17. This should help with the onset of the monsoon a few days later than normal along the South-West coast of Kerala. 

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