The Hindu Business Line : IMD to announce annual monsoon forecast on Apr 15

THE India Meteorological Department (IMD) will announce its annual long range forecast of the country's monsoon, using its newly developed eight-parameter model on April 15, according to the Director-General of the Department, Dr S.K. Srivastav.

The forecast done on May 25 for several years, has been advanced by 40 days since 2003, in view of the increasing confidence and reliability of the forecast model, the IMD chief said.

For more than a decade the IMD used a 16-parameter model for its annual forecast.

The IMD will do a second forecast on June 25, exclusively for July, which is most critical for agricultural operations, using a 10-parameter model.

This forecast would also address any corrections required in the April 15 long-term prediction, depending on the implications of the various parameters, Dr Srivastav told newspersons here.

The IMD chief was here to participate in the International Symposium on Natural Hazards (INTROMET-2004), organised by the India Meteorological Society (IMS).

Dr Srivastav said data on all the eight parameters would be available by the first week of April, facilitating the long range forecast to be made on April 15, which determines the progress of the south-west monsoon.

The south-west monsoon brings rainfall to nearly 80 per cent of the geographical spread of the country.

Referring to the effect of El Nino, Dr Srivastav said as per the latest reports, it was not at all strong this year.

Moreover, the IMD has, over the years, demonstrated that the El Nino phenomenon occurring off the Pacific coast of Peru, does not have a major impact on the Indian monsoon system, he added.

On further improvements in the forecast capabilities, the IMD chief said, "We will try to give monthly forecasts to suit the agriculture operations.

"Similarly, region specific forecasts tailored to the agro-climatic zones and also the needs of the cropping there are being developed."

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