The Hindu Business Line : General Elections: More questions than answers

The Indian political scene today is different from the 1970s and 1980s, when the Congress(I) wielded considerable influence among the masses. It is almost 10 years since the Congress(I) was voted out of power.

Has the Indian democracy matured? Does the electorate have a better understanding of the political system?

While these issues will be debated long and hard, one reality is the emergence of a new generation of electorate — the youth not exposed to the freedom struggle or the role of the Congress in independent India.

The problems of the youth, such as unemployment, need priority attention. It is not enough to glorify the advances made in the IT sector and the job opportunities created there.

The problem of unemployment is more pervasive. Media campaigns like "India Shining" and "India on the Move" are fine, but people can also see for themselves the ground realities.

Surely much development has happened, but has it percolated to the rural areas where nearly 70 per cent of the population lives? Apparently not so, for even the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L. K. Advani, has admitted that the benefits of development have not reached Rural India. Any party aspiring for power must necessarily address the concerns of the rural sector.

But neither the BJP nor the Congress(I) has adequately addressed the issues involved in the development of this sector, such as primary education, rural health and sanitation, drinking water and enhanced public investment.

As the parties go to the hustings, the BJP starts as the favourite.

It has also played the cards well. Its main source of strength is its ability to form alliances, and, more important, keep it together.

Also, it has strategised well. For instance, when the BJP found the economy performing well, it quietly pushed, at least for now, the controversial Ayodhya issue on to the back-burner and quickly made development its campaign theme.

If the recent State elections are any guide, the image of the Congress(I) has suffered due to its poor showing on the development front, corruption charges against its leaders and lack of contact with the masses.

Today people see a leadership vacuum in the party, what with Ms Sonia Gandhi unable to make a lasting impression.

Uttar Pradesh, it is said, holds the key to Government formation at the Centre. In this State, both the Congress(I) and the BJP face a tough task. Both are trying to form electoral alliances. The main State players are the SP and the BSP.

The Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav may be inclined to lean towards the BJP for its own tactical reasons. The BSP under Ms Mayawati, however, seems to be in no mood to oblige the Congress(I).

In the South, the local equations continue to matter. In Tamil Nadu, with the DMK drifting away from the BJP, the latter has tied up with the AIADMK. Karnataka may remain with the Congress(I) while Kerala is a riddle for the party with the Karunakaran factor.

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP may go with the BJP. Yet it is early days and campaign of no party has got any real focus.

But by current indications, the BJP may do well in North and Central India (the Hindi belt) and Gujarat.

The South may go the Congress(I) way. The Eastern States may either go to the Congress(I) or be dominated by regional parties.

(The author is a New Delhi-based management and financial consultant.)